Hurricane Ernesto

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Chris

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The current advisories indicate that Ernesto has reached tropical storm strength. As can be seen from the 3-day cone, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W_sm2+gif/145324W_sm.gif
Ernesto should pass us with a safe margin and well to the South.

At 5pm, the Government of Haiti has issued a tropical storm watch for the Southwestern Peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the Southwest Tip of Haiti.
Also at 5pm, the Government of Jamaica has issued a tropical storm watch for Jamaica.
Interests in the Cayman Islands and Western Cuba should monitor the progress of Ernesto.

At 5pm, the center of tropical storm Ernesto was located around 485 KM South-SouthWest of San Juan Puerto Rico and 660 miles East-SouthEast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ernesto is moving toward the West-NorthWest near 16 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

At the current speed and on the current track Ernesto will pass around 200 miles to the South of Santo Domingo by 2pm tomorrow.

Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected in association with Ernesto across portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica and less rainfall is expected over Puerto Rica and the Dutch Netherland Antilles.

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of Ernesto
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
 
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Hillbilly

Hillbilly

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So that's where the showers today came from.

They were nice. And the sun shown through. That's good luck!

HB
 
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Chris

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Where I come from, if we had clouds and rain and sun all mixed in together like today, we used to say the Jackal is after the Wolf´s wife .. ;)
 
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Chris

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The expectations are that Ernesto will strengthen significantly over the next few days and may become a significant storm. Ernesto is now heading into warmer waters. The only issue that is still at question, is around the wind shear. If there is significant wind shear, it will hamper Ernesto from strengthening.

Fixes from the recon aircraft indicate that Ernesto is moving toward the West-Northwest or 285 degrees at around 16 mph around the periphery of a subtropical ridge. This general track is expected to continue through the forecast period with a decrease in forward speed in a day or so, as the ridge to the North weakens.

The official track forecast is in the middle of the model envelope but closer to where there is global model consensus.

At 5am this morning, the center of Ernesto was about 225 miles South of Santo Domingo and about 490 miles East-SouthEast of Kingston, Jamaica.

Today we will see more cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms as an outflow from Ernesto over our Southern Coast. We can also expect this to be quite a rainy day and this will continue until Ernesto clears our waters completely. We will follow the storm until it is past us.

Ernesto could become a potentially dangerous hurricane as it moves across the NorthWestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
 
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DrChrisHE

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TS Ernesto Update

Hey guys...I'm in NY visiting friends but my family is still in Juan Dolio. I've read the thread but don't see any wonderful projected paths like with TS Chris. I'm hoping that you've not posted them because they aren't going the DR route but CNN is still reporting that the storm MAY go toward FL which means it has to make a turn somewhere. Anyone care to answer? TIA. I'm flying back on Wednesday evening and don't do well in turbulence either. :bunny: Dr. Chris:bunny:
 
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Chris

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Oh Boy .. these storms always have a surprise or two ..

A hurricane hunter aircraft finds Ernesto to the East-NorthEast of the previous advisory and slightly stronger.

Noaa says that a tropical storm warning is recommended for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona to the Dominican Republic-Haiti Border. You guys there, keep a good watch out tonight. This puppy is closer than what you think.
 
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Chris

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Ernesto is moving toward the WestNorthWest near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track Ernesto is expected to pass very near the SouthWestern tip of Haiti this afternoon or early evening.

Most of the rains and winds are in the Eastern quadrant of the storm and I expect the South Coast is getting a soaking. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches with possible isolated amounts of up to 20 inches are expected over Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, just under hurricane strength. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and Ernesto could become a category 1 hurricane later this morning and a category 2 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Cuba.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center.

Tides of up to 3 feet above normal can be expected.
 
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Ladybird

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Flights

Chris,

Ive had to fly to the UK on business and am due to fly back to DR on Tues, do you think all will be ok in POP airport by then. ?? Thank you so much for all your terrific hard work on keeping us updated

LB
 
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Chris

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RECENT DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO HAVE INCREASED TO 75 MPH.

THIS MAKES ERNESTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE ... RIGHT HERE ON OUR DOORSTEP.

Ernesto shows quite clearly how these storms can do their own thing, despite the best forecasting methods and methodology, track forecasting, intensity forecasting, investigation by aircraft, models and all the other methods we have available to assess cyclones.

The Noaa discussion this morning says that Ernesto is right now undergoing rapid intensification. An eye is forming but is so small that flight crew have been unable to assess the minimum surface pressure. This one carries a lot of water and I've not seen any of the South Coasters posting this morning. We will have water coming down for a while still, as the outflow is expanding in all directions.

Hey guys there on the South Coast, how are you doing under all this water?
 
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zak023

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Feb 8, 2006
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Report from Southwest

Paraiso and points south... Heavy rain and wind but no damage..slight flooding on the coastal areas..Otherwise no downed trees /powerlines..And the phone service is intact....
 
K

Ken

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Jan 1, 2002
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According to the CNN meterologists this morning, the upper level winds that were shearing the top of Ernesto and restraining its development died down during the night. To illustrate they showed before and after radar pictures and you could see the dramatic difference.

Ernesto now likely to be a force 2 hurricane when it hits Cuba, drop to 1 as it passes over the island, they gain strength in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and be very possibly at least force 3 by the time it makes landfall in the US.
 
Hillbilly

Hillbilly

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Jan 1, 2002
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Santiago: raining, very light breeze.
Photos in today's press show great waves breaking along the Malecon in Santo domingo.
Sorry our reporter from la Romana is no longer there. She was great.

Hey ZAK?? Please keep feeding us info onthings down that way. You can believe that withthe water that this thing is going to drop, there will be much/landslides and a lot of flooding along the waterways....be real careful, buddy, you are in a "hot zone"....

The Barahona-Pedernales area has been a traditional area for hurricanes to hit or effect...

HB a bit worried.
 
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