US weather forecasts call for above average hurricane season

[Dolores]

Weather forecasters are recommending people to be prepared for major hurricanes in the Caribbean. Colorado State University early forecast expects 17 named hurricanes, compared to the past (1991-2000) average of 14 named storms.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June through 30 November.

In the early seasonal forecast, the Colorado State University meteorologists are predicting 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

AccuWeather is predicting the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could bring 13 to 18 named storms, 7 to 10 hurricanes, 3 to 5 major hurricanes and 3-6 direct US impacts.

The US National Hurricane Center will be issuing its Atlantic Season forecasts starting 15 May. This year, the NHC says it will be giving people 72-hour early advance advisories, instead of 48-hour warnings before the anticipated...

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[Seamonkey]

They call for the same thing every year. Last year was very quiet. We had a hurricane pass south of the DR early in the season and nothing else all year.

 

[MariaRubia]

They call for the same thing every year. Last year was very quiet. We had a hurricane pass south of the DR early in the season and nothing else all year.

So we should just ignore them should we?

 

[Northern Coast Diver]

So we should just ignore them should we?

Meanwhile being prepared for any storm, it is okay to ignore long range BS forecasts. Those guesses don't count for much.

 

[CristoRey]

Meanwhile being prepared for any storm, it is okay to ignore long range BS forecasts. Those guesses don't count for much.

Having a little common sense makes life so much easier.

 

[BermudaRum]

NOAA predicted in 2024 a range of 17 to 25 total named storms, with 8 to 13 forecasted to become hurricanes

2024 Results for the Atlantic Ocean, and the Caribbean
Storms 7
Hurricanes 11 - (Cat 3+) 5
Total Storms/Hurricanes 18

 

[keepcoming]

I am a believer in the "better safe than sorry" theory. Many of the warnings/alerts end up being nothing but it only takes that one time.

 

[Northern Coast Diver]

I am a believer in the "better safe than sorry" theory. Many of the warnings/alerts end up being nothing but it only takes that one time.

I agree 100% regarding warnings and alerts. But these seasonal predictions mean nothing. Guessing the number of storms does not help the public prepare for anything.

 

[windeguy]

So we should just ignore them should we?

So far in Cabarete, I could have ignored them since I have been here. But you never know, anything can happen and I always track them.

The problem with predicting the future is that it hasn't happened yet.

 

[Seamonkey]

So we should just ignore them should we?

Ignore them, no. Take them with a grain of salt and prepare for the worse. Hurricanes don't appear overnight. You can track them weeks ahead. No use worrying about something that might happen like "predictions".

 

[chico bill]

So we should just ignore them should we?

One day it will come, so prepare. But more likely a heart attack or stroke will come first - are you preparing for that or worrying?
The Climate Change hoaxers will celebrate every landfall of every storm with a smug "I told you so".

Maybe even Christopher Columbus recognized Climate Change hurricanes also ?

 

[PJT]

Weather forecasting is a crap game to say the least. Trump layoffs and budget reductions at NOAH and NHC will impact negatively the accuracy of hurricane forecasts coming from there.

Expect the European model of hurricane forecasting will have better sureness for this season.

Regards,

PJT

 

[josh2203]

I am a believer in the "better safe than sorry" theory. Many of the warnings/alerts end up being nothing but it only takes that one time.

Very true. General preparedness is the best. With us just the recent flooding in POP is a perfect example. The weather forecasts mostly came AFTER the flooding and the flooding only occurred after 45 minutes of regular, though heavy rain. I think nobody really expected that. Being aware of your surroundings and what's typical in your neighborhood in case of bad weather. In this area of POP, my wife knows exactly what to expect in terms of worst case scenario and unfortunately, all the years I have known her, she has never been wrong...

 

[CristoRey]

Weather forecasting is a crap game to say the least. Trump layoffs and budget reductions at NOAH and NHC will impact negatively the accuracy of hurricane forecasts coming from there.

Expect the European model of hurricane forecasting will have better sureness for this season.

Regards,

PJT

Surely you jest 😂😂😂
Did he layoff the computer models as well?

 

[bob saunders]

Weather forecasting is a crap game to say the least. Trump layoffs and budget reductions at NOAH and NHC will impact negatively the accuracy of hurricane forecasts coming from there.

Expect the European model of hurricane forecasting will have better sureness for this season.

Regards,

PJT

Will not make any difference whatsoever. Radars systems will still work, the storm planes will still fly, and the satellites will still function.

 

[CristoRey]

Will not make any difference whatsoever. Radars systems will still work, the storm planes will still fly, and the satellites will still function.

I'm still waiting on the sky to fall.
Tick Tock
Tick Tock
Tick Tock....

 

[chico bill]

I'm still waiting on the sky to fall.
Tick Tock
Tick Tock
Tick Tock....

You mean TicTok?

 

[chico bill]

Weather forecasting is a crap game to say the least. Trump layoffs and budget reductions at NOAH and NHC will impact negatively the accuracy of hurricane forecasts coming from there.

Expect the European model of hurricane forecasting will have better sureness for this season.

Regards,

PJT

9% (between 1,200-1,300) were laid off, mostly probationary employees, meaning they came in less than one year prior. Many were at-will contract employees, not actually NOAH employees, including a few Hurricane Hunter crew persons.

Maybe eliminating the most recent hires could mean the least experienced analysts are gone?

Or maybe they would have been 'new blood' that would correct some of the horribly errant forecasts of the last few decades. The average path prediction by NOAH, at the time 48 hours ahead of hurricanes, is 117 KM off course. Most recently hurricane Helene was one example of very poor CAT modeling.

Several colleges are now upping their weather forecast modeling. And perhaps coupled with AI, more accurate forecasting will come to pass.

But the old axiom kind of still holds. A weatherman is the only job where you can always be wrong and keep your job. ...... except when DOGE comes calling.