At the end of February, The Economist Poll of Forecasters projected a real growth in GDP for 1996 of under 3% in all Caribbean major tourism source markets. Canada, Italy, the Netherlands, Scandinavia, Spain and the United States are forecast to increase output between 2.1% and 2.6% with Spain at the high end, while France and Germany are projected for slower growth at 1.6% and 1.5% respectively, according to the Caribbean Tourism Organization.
Among the emerging markets for the Caribbean, Brazil had virtually no growth in 1995 (0.2%) compared to a robust 9.4% increase the year before. Argentina suffered a 2.5% decline in 1995 but is predicted as having a 1% growth this year.
In the United States, consumer confidence rebounded after a sharp drop in January, in spite of general softness in the leading economic indicators. This was reflected in the stock market where the Dow Jones index continued to set new records, 17 so far this year.
Markets in Amsterdam, Frankfurt and Stockholm also hit record highs. U.S. travel spending in the first quarter is outpacing slower rates in other sectors of the economy and a recent poll by the Travel Industry Association showed 25% of those surveyed having increased travel expectations for the spring. The U.S. dollar remains fairly stable, making moderate gains against the German mark and Japanese yen.