The Dominican Weather Department says 10 hurricanes are forecast for the season that opened 1 June in the Caribbean. The named hurricanes for this season are Alex, Bonnif, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances, Georges, Hermine, Ivan, Jeanne, Karl, Lisa, Mitch, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie and Walter. The Atlantic Basin hurricane season, which includes the Caribbean, runs from 1 June through 30 November, but most hurricanes have been known to hit the Dominican Republic in August-September. In an early year forecast issued by the Colorado State University Dr. William Gray forecast team it was revealed that the current trends in the relevant global climate conditions lack any dominating feature likely to cause either a highly active or inactive Atlantic hurricane season this summer. According to Dr. Gray, information obtained through March 1998 indicates that the upcoming 1998 Atlantic hurricane season is likely to experience about average hurricane activity. They have projected 10 named storms (average is 9.3), 50 named storm days (average is 47), 6 hurricanes (average is 5.8), 20 hurricane days (average is 24), 2 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3), 4 intense hurricane days (average is 4.7) and a hurricane destruction potential (HDP) of 65 (average is 71). According to this forecast team: "Whereas net 1998 tropical cyclone activity is expected to be about 95 percent of the long term average, conditions this year should be distinctively more active than 1997 but less active than the very busy hurricane seasons of 1995 and 1996. This early April prediction indicates a greater possibility of a slightly more active season than did our early December (1997) forecast of 1998 hurricane activity. An important element entering this April forecast update is more evidence that the very strong 1997-1998 El Niño will be largely dissipated by the start of the (climatologically) active part of the hurricane season (i.e., mid-August). " The Colorado State University team will update their forecast on 5 June.
