The Hamilton Beattie & Staff-Hoy March poll shows PLD candidate Leonel Fernandez winning in a first round, albeit with a much lesser lead than predicted by Penn Schoen and Gallup polls carried out in January and February, respectively. The Hamilton poll shows Fernandez winning with 52%, followed by Hipolito Mejia (PRD) with 25% and Eduardo Estrella (PRSC) with 17%. The Hamilton poll comes after Fernandez and Mejia choosing their Vice-Presidential candidates. The complete tickets are now: Hipolito Mejia and Rafael Subervi for the PRD; Leonel Fernandez and Rafael Alburquerque for the PLD; Eduardo Estrella and Jose Hazim for the PRSC. The poll took place 20-23 March and 1,200 eligible voters were interviewed nationwide.
In February, a Gallup poll had shown Fernandez leading with 63.1%, versus 14.6% for Mejia and 14.9% for Estrella. In January, the Penn Shoen poll showed Fernandez ahead with 65.7%, followed by Estrella with 16% and 13% Mejia.
This latest survey revealed that, should none of the candidates net the minimum 50%+1 majority to win a first round, Fernandez would also win in a second round to become the next President. Hoy newspaper says that in the case of a showdown between Mejia and Fernandez, the vote would result in 59% for Fernandez and 27% for Mejia. In case the final two candidates were Estrella and Fernandez, the vote would yield 54% for Fernandez and 32% for Estrella. In both scenarios, Hamilton says 14% of the voters are undecided.
The survey also polled voters on party preferences, indicating that 60% would never vote for the PRD, 30% would never vote for the PLD and 23% would never vote for the PRSC. The polled showed that 30% of Dominicans would never vote for Fernandez, 62% would never vote for Mejia and 21% would never vote for Estrella.
Other findings disclose that 71% of those who have said they will vote for the Fernandez-Alburquerque ticket are firm in their decision, versus the 29% who are still considering it. Regarding the Mejia-Subervi ticket, 68% are unwavering in their choice, while 32% are still pondering whether to vote or not.