Bear Stearns issued a report today on the Dominican Republic’s economic performance, using the Central Bank’s recently published third-quarter report as a basis. Franco Uccelli, who follows the Dominican Republic for the firm’s emerging markets sovereign research department, focuses on such positive aspects as the GDP’s 1.4% expansion from January to September; inflation’s downward trend; the sharp appreciation of the peso; a current account surplus that has soared; a deceleration of capital flight; the recovery of international reserves; and the improving external position of banks. Uccelli cites several issues that are still matters of concern, however, namely: the government’s fiscal deficit, including the quasi-fiscal debt, and the fact that the public external debt has inched upwards, while the government has fallen into arrears on its international debt. He mentions that public external debt service obligations are expected to total US$290 million for the period of October to December, with projections ascending to US$1.3 billion for next year and almost US$1.7 billion in 2006.
For the full report, see http://www.dr1.com/news/2004/120104_BS.pdf