The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC – CEPAL in Spanish) forecasts that Gross Domestic Product growth for 2004-2005 for the Dominican Republic will range from a low 2.2 to a high 2.7%. ECLAC projects a 2.5% growth for the country. Growth for the DR and El Salvador are the lowest forecast for Latin America. The Caribbean projected average is at 4%. Costa Rica posts a 3.5% projected growth rate, Guatemala 3%, Honduras 4.2%, Mexico 3.8%, Nicaragua 4%, and Panama 4.5%.
ECLAC says that the Latin America and Caribbean economy will grow by around 4.4% in 2005, which reaffirms a relatively positive regional scenario, despite the slowdown expected in the world economy. Highest growth rates are reported for Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela.
ECLAC says that the strong performance of domestic demand will offset the external sector’s reduced contribution to growth. In several countries, remittances from abroad will continue to drive growth in domestic demand. Employment should recover gradually as should real wages, although to a somewhat lesser extent.
ECLAC alerts that the high debt levels observed in some of the region’s countries will make growth vulnerable to increase in interest rates in the US.
ECLAC also mentions that dollar depreciation against the euro and the yen, apparent in 2004, is expected to continue this year, with important consequences for the region, since it will give additional impetus to several countries’ efforts to diversify their export destinations and, above all, will help to promote the region as an important alternative for tourism, mainly from Europe and Asia.
See http://www.eclac.org/cgi-bin/getProd.asp?…