The United Nations World Tourism Organization Barometer forecasts that so far this year there has been healthy performance of the tourism sector around the world. “Even though the overall economic climate has deteriorated, prospects are still fairly positive. For 2008 as a whole, UNWTO maintains its forecast that the growth of international tourist arrivals will be positive overall within the range of 3.4%.
The Barometer points out that the performance of the Americas (+8%) during the first four months of the year, compared to 5% reported for last year as a whole, has surprised many skeptics who were not confident of prospects for continued growth of US tourism. The Barometer explains that the principal factor behind the growth is the surge in arrivals in the US, which registered nearly two fifths of the total arrivals count in the Americas. Arrivals were up 15% for the first three months, compared to 10% for all of 2007.
Arrivals to Mexico were up 3% in the first four months, reflecting the “extremely competitive prices” the Cancun/Riviera Maya hotels are offering.
Regarding the Caribbean, the Barometer reports that after a flat 2007, the Caribbean as a region is doing much better. It reasons that most Caribbean currencies are pegged to the US, and the exchange advantage is pulling in travelers from Europe and South America. At the same time, it is close enough to the USA to be attracting US holidaymakers deterred by economic uncertainty, exchange rates or other concerns from long haul travel. The point is made that the Caribbean derives some comfort from the idea that US citizens, determined not to sacrifice their vacations, may be diverted to destinations closer to home.
On the DR, the Barometer reports that travel to the country is up 6% through May and comments on the interest of big players in investing in the country, which is extending the range of markets on which it can draw.
UNWTO states that the development causing the most concern at present is the continued rise in energy prices, and its effect on air transport. According to the Barometer, airline fuel costs have escalated to such a point that the industry is almost in panic mode, closing routes, cutting capacity, mothballing aircraft, suspending or postponing orders, looking for mergers, raising fuel surcharges and introducing new charges for things like checked and/or hand baggage, inflight meals and drinks – services taken for granted until now on legacy airlines. These different factors are bound to influence demand, with the greatest impact expected to be from late 2008. Other uncertainties are inflation, the weak US dollar, the depreciation of the Pound sterling against all key currencies except the US dollar and erratic weather patterns all over the world.