The polling company Penn & Schoen was the most accurate in predicting the outcome of the 20 May presidential election. In its 18-22 April poll, the company forecast that Danilo Medina would receive 51% of the vote against 46% of the vote for Hipolito Mejia. With 99% of the vote in, the results were 51.24% – 46.93%.
Greenberg (2-7 May poll) at 51 PLD and 46% HM, and Gallup’s poll of 14-18 April at 50.6% for Danilo Medina compared to 44.6% for Hipolito Mejia, were also close.
Interestingly, the average of the 15 most recent polls was also relatively accurate. The average was 50% to 46%.
The polls into the election were:
Penn Schoen (18-22 April): DM 51%, HM 46%
Gallup (14-18 April): DM 50.6%, HM 44.6%
CID Latinoamericana (30 April-4 May): HM 51%, DM 48%
Greenberg (2-7 May): DM 51%, HM 46%
Benenson Strategy (5-9 May): DM 52%, HM 41%
Sigma Dos (6-12 May): DM 53.7%, HM 43.6%
Campol Group (8-12 May): HM 50%, DM 45%
Alfonso, Cabrera y Asoc (10-12 May), DM 53.6%, HM 43.3%
Hamilton Campaigns (10-13 May): DM 52%, HM 43%
Centro Economico del Cibao (11-13 May): HM 50.4%, 47% DM
Newlink (12-14 May): DM 52.1%, HM 45.5%
Zogby Analytics (12-14 May): HM 50%, DM 45%
Insight (11-14 May): DM 54.7%, HM 43.1%
Bendixen & Amandi (13-16 May): HM 52%, DM 45%
Asisa (14-15 May): DM 53.3%, HM 44.7%