Without wanting to be fatalistic, 2013, which has just started, is a year whose economic prospects are forecast to be more limited than in 2012, or at best, equal to 2012.
Four economists consulted by Diario Libre agree with forecasts that unemployment would increase. An estimated economic growth of over 4% in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would be needed to counteract this. Unfortunately, it has been calculated that growth this year will be no more than 3%. The impact will be better or worse according to the quality of the government’s expenditure of its resources. This factor, in turn, will depend on the collections that the state treasury is able to obtain.
On the global front, Jacqueline Mora, an economist and the executive director of the Analytica firm, foresees a complicated international economy. Europe is a little better, but still experiencing problems while the United States has tax restrictions and economic incentives based on an expansive monetary policy. This could affect both remittances and tourism to the Dominican Republic.
Nonetheless, the event that is most feared in her opinion, is a possible conflict between Iran and Israel, because if they go to war the supply of oil could become expensive and raise the price per barrel, strongly impacting the Dominican economy.
In the same international environment, Henri Hebrard’s assessment is that there could also be a decrease in remittances. But the economist believes that a large part of the stability in the money that overseas-based Dominicans send each year will be affected by the road taken by the United States and its tax situation. “Although the US economy has shown signs of recovery, we still have to see where it goes.”
Two other economists, Pavel Isa Contreras and Nelson Suarez, see a great opportunity for 2013 if the government establishes a basis for the long-term culture of transparency and institutionalism. They go so far as to say that if, in order to do this, it is necessary to take penal action to give the proper value that spending the public’s money entails. “Cleaning up institutions and reducing discretional power in order to grow in the long-term, this is the goal,” says Isa Contreras.