THE Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean says the Dominican economy will experience growth of 5% in 2014, more than double it has forecast for average growth for the Latin American and Caribbean region. The forecast for Dominican economic growth is up from 4.1% in 2013 and 3.9% in 2012. Growth is attributed to an increase in mining, construction, farming and manufacturing.
The findings are in the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014, released on Monday.
The ECLAC forecast for regional growth is pegged at 2.2%, down from 2.5% in 2013. In the analysis, ECLAC economists say the trend for the region could surpass expectations towards the end of 2014, given possible gradual improvement in some of the world’s major economies.
Panama is predicted to be the country in the region with the highest increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 6.7%, followed by Bolivia with 5.5%.
In addition to the Dominican Republic, Colombia, Ecuador and Nicaragua are all forecast to experience economic expansions of 5%.
Alicia Barcena, ECLAC’s executive secretary, during the presentation of the Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014, said on Monday:
“Macroeconomic policies have to take into account each country’s specific vulnerabilities. Without a doubt, it is important in all cases to increase investment and productivity to guarantee structural change with equality in the medium term. Both factors are key challenges for the economic sustainability of development, especially in the current context.”
In the report, ECLAC economists say that the resumption of economic growth in the United States will benefit Mexico and Central American countries, while the recovery of the United Kingdom and several economies in the euro zone will also have a positive impact, especially in the Caribbean, due to the arrival of more tourists from these nations.
The main risk is the lower growth forecast for China in 2014, the report emphasizes. The regional economies that are more specialized in exporting commodities to that country could be affected if the Asian giant cannot maintain its growth above 7%.
The study adds that in the medium term, the region is expected to face less demand for its main export goods and experience more costly external financing.
ECLAC recommends that governments closely coordinate macroeconomic policies to manage the economic cycle and implement policies that foster more long-term growth. ECLAC recommends greater investment in infrastructure and innovation and efforts to spur diversification of production.
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http://www.cepal.org/publicaciones/xml/2/53392/EEE2014-RepDom.pdf