According to research by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Diario Libre, should Danilo Medina respect the 2010 Constitution that bans his re-election, the outcome of the election is not decided.
The research shows that none of the pre-candidates has enough support to win in a first round. The poll showed that former President Leonel Fernandez attracts 31% of the voters, former President Hipolito Mejia has 17% and Hipolito Mejia’s former vice president in the 2012 election, Luis Abinader has 14%. Former presidential candidates Guillermo Moreno has 7% of the vote and Miguel Vargas Maldonado 3%.
Greenberg forecasts that in a second round against Hipolito Mejia, Fernandez is likely to win by 47% to 37% with an estimated 12% abstention rate. The poll found that if Abinader were to run, the margin would be lower at 46% to 42%.
In analyzing the results, the pollsters say that while Fernandez is likely to win, his position is weaker than two years ago with his approval rating falling 17 points over the last two years, currently standing at 28%. The research suggests that the fall is due to corruption that was ranked only second to unemployment in the concerns of the population.
Fernandez is perceived to be the most corrupt of the leaders with 48% of the population describing him as such, compared to 25% saying Mejia is the most corrupt and only 7% naming Miguel Vargas, who has yet to reach the presidency. Only 1% named Danilo Medina as the most corrupt.
Even within his own party, Fernandez’s approval rating has fallen from 79% in 2012 to only 41% at present. However he is still seen as the strongest leader with 39% naming him as such compared to 28% for Medina and 15% for Mejia.
http://www.diariolibre.com/noticias/2014/10/29/i858451_leonel-debilitado-por-corrupcin-abinader-emerge-como-opcin-opositora.html