Former President Leonel Fernandez, who launched his campaign for the ruling PLD party presidential nomination last week, would receive the most votes of all the leading candidates eligible to run in the 2016 presidential election, according to the Penn Schoen & Berland March poll. This means a second round would need to be held in June, and there is uncertainty about the outcome.
In one scenario considered by the poll, Leonel Fernandez (of the PLD) would receive 35% of the vote, followed by Hipolito Mejia (PRM) with 24% and Guillermo Moreno (AP) with 11%. If the PRM candidate were Luis Abinader, the numbers would be: Leonel Fernandez 36%, Luis Abinader 21%, Guillermo Moreno 11%, Miguel Vargas (PRD) 6%, and Amable Aristy Castro (La Estructura) 5%.
According to the same Penn, Schoen and Berland poll, 76% of the voters in the country think that President Danilo Medina could be re-elected in 2016, with 23% saying they disagreed with his running for re-election and 1% not answering.
The 2010 Constitution bans Danilo Medina from running for re-election in 2016. The Constitution would have to be changed to allow for him to seek office in that year. To make the change, Fernandez and Medina supporters, plus opposition party legislators would have to be in agreement.
The poll was carried out from 4 to 8 March in 2015, with a sample size of 1,049 Dominicans and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.02.