A Penn, Shoen & Berland and Hoy newspaper poll carried out from 12-16 May 2015 nationwide reveals that if the presidential election would take place today, Luis Abinader of the PRM would defeat Leonel Fernandez of the PLD. If President Danilo Medina were the PLD candidate, Medina would win the election easily.
Abinader (PRM) would receive 34%, Leonel Fernandez (PLD) 32%, Miguel Vargas Maldonado (PRD) and Guillermo Moreno (Alianza Pais) 5%, Amable Aristy Castro (La Estructura) 3%, Federico Antun (PRSC) 2% and others 1%. There would be a 15% abstention rate. The pollsters say that the difference of 2% between Abinader and Fernandez is within the margin of error of the poll, which means they are tied for first place. In this scenario, a second round would need to take place in June. The polling company says that if Miguel Vargas and Guillermo Moreno call for their voters to favor Abinader, the PRM candidate could reach the needed 51% to win in a first round. It adds that if Leonel Fernandez secured the support of his traditional supporters Amable Aristy Castro and Federico Antun, he could increase his vote to 45% which still would not be enough for the party to win in a first round.
If Danilo Medina ran against Luis Abinader, the latter would receive a vote of 66% to 22%. The poll says that Miguel Vargas Maldonado would receive 3%, Guillermo Moreno (2%), Amable Aristy Castro and Federico Antun 1%. As reported, Medina has 61% of the vote of women, 55% of young people and 90% of his party followers. Abinader is strong among men (27%), middle aged voters (25%) and would receive 84% of the vote of the PRM and a low 52% of the PRD vote.
http://www.noticiassin.com/2015/05/abinader-le-ganaria-a-fernandez-pero-si-va-danilo-este-ultimo-seria-el-triunfador/