A poll carried out 8-10 January 2016 by Alfonso, Cabrera y Asociados reveals that 52.9% of Dominican voters will vote for President Danilo Medina, 40.7% for Luis Abinader, and 4.7% for Guillermo Moreno. The remaining 1.7% of the vote was shared between the minority candidates. A total of 1,626 surveys were completed in the poll, which has a 2.43% plus or minus margin of error.
The company says that polls since March 2013 show President Medina consistently losing popularity. From March 2013 to January 2016, Medina lost 37.5 percentage points, while Luis Abinader gained 36.5 percentage points over the same period.
The comparison between Medina and Abinader over the years is:
March 2013: Medina 90.4%, Abinader 4.2%
October 2013: Medina 88.3%, Abinader 6.1%
January 2014: Medina 75.4%, Abinader 9.4%
October 2014: Medina 71.2%, Abinader 12.1%
January 2015: Medina 68.1%, Abinader 15.7%
July 2015: Medina 66.3%, Abinader 20.8%
October 2015: Medina 56.5%, Abinader 34.8%
November 2015: Medina 53.5%, Abinader 39.9%
December 2015: Medina 53.1%, Abinader 40.4%
January 2015: Medina 52.9%, Abinader 40.7%
