According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) the Latin American and Caribbean economy will contract by 0.5% this year, with the region divided between the north, which will suffer less than the south.
The IMF said that although this will be the second consecutive year that the region will experience a decline in growth (in 2015 there was a 0.1% decrease), in 2017 it is forecast that the economy of the region will grow by 1.5%.
The main reason for the decline in 2016 is the fall in price of raw materials and oil that has the effect of dividing the region into two which leads to substantial variations in the anticipated growth or decline.
In Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean there will be positive growth, benefitting from the recovery of the United States and low oil prices. Mexico is expected to grow by 2.4%, Guatemala 4 %, El Salvador, 2.5 %, Honduras, 3.5 %, Costa Rica, 4.2 % and Panama, 6.1%.
In the Caribbean, the Dominican Republic is anticipating growth of 5.4% this year and 4.5% in 2017, with Haiti at 2.3% and 3.3% in 2017.
At the other end of the scale, Brazil is expected to contract for a second year with minus 3.8% growth in 2016, the same as last year.
A separate World Bank report, “The Commodity Cycle in Latin America: Mirages and Dilemmas,” forecasts the region will contract by 0.9% in 2016. According to the report, South America, which has borne the brunt of the fall in commodity prices and in Chinese growth, is expected to contract by more than 2% this year, on the back of sharp recessions in Brazil and Venezuela. However, in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean – which depend less on commodity exports and are more closely tied to the economic recovery in the United States – growth is expected to remain positive in 2016, coming in at 2.5%.
http://www.listindiario.com/economia/2016/04/12/415228/crecimiento-de-rd-en-2016-sera-del-54–segun-el-fmi
http://www.worldbank.org/lac
