Mark Penn/Stagwell conducted a face-to-face survey of 1,013 likely voters in the 2020 elections between 26-29 September 2019. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1% and the reliability level is 95%. The data was weighted to be representative of the population most likely to vote in May next year. The survey was paid for by Noticias SIN news service.
According to the findings of the poll, former President Leonel Fernández and former Public Works Minister Gonzalo Castillo are tied for 46% to win the presidential candidacy for the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD). The tight election could present problems for the Central Electoral Board (JCE) as in this case a vote recount is likely to be requested. The JCE has announced it will verify the vote with a physical count of 20% of the vote at the presidential level.
The same poll shows Luis Abinader of the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) defeating former President Hipólito Mejía in the parallel primaries on the same day with a comfortable 79% of the vote.
Economist, historian and diplomat, Bernardo Vega observes that the race between Fernández and Castillo “is complicated.” He explains 62% of respondents say they will vote for the PLD in the open primaries of 6 October 2019. That is high considering that traditionally 70% vote in the presidential primaries. That 62% includes 26% of those who say they are PRM members or supporters. Vega observes that the Central Electoral Board (JCE) will not allow those who have already voted in the PRM primaries to vote in the PLD primaries. Voters need to choose, one or the other.
The poll indicated that 81% of respondents who say they prefer Fernández say they will vote, compared to 77% of those who prefer Castillo. However, a high 57% of independents say they will vote in the PLD primaries and as these represent 49% of the total vote, it would mean that 30% of the vote in that primary would come from independents.
In other areas, according to the poll, 73% of Dominicans say that President Danilo Medina “made the right decision by choosing not to change the Constitution” to run for a new term. Regarding the possibility of modifying the Constitution so that Medina can be a candidate in 2024, 63% of those polled stated that the Constitution should not be amended. Only 33% favored restoring Medina’s right to be a presidential candidate again.
As for assessing Medina’s presidency, 54% consider themselves satisfied with the President’s administration, including 55% who described themselves as independents. Nevertheless, 61% of voters think that the country is on the wrong track. 70% believe that there is more corruption in the current government than in the past.
The survey highlights that 58% of the members or sympathizers of the ruling PLD party say corruption has increased in the current government. Among those of the PRM, the number is 85%, and among independents, it is 71%.
Regarding the influence of the US government over the Dominican Republic, 70% of voters said that the US exerts some or a lot of pressure. Among people in the 35-49 and 50-64 age ranges, the assertion was more severe, at 75% and 73%, respectively.
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3 October 2019