A poll carried out one month after the 6 October 2019 primary in which Abinader was chosen, the presidential candidate for the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRD) has him winning the first round of the May 2020 election.
The campaign office of Abinader sent to the media the results of the poll carried out 3-5 November 2019, when 1,400 eligible voters were surveyed. In a scenario where he would compete against Gonzalo Castillo for the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) and Leonel Fernández for the People’s Force Party (La Fuerza del Pueblo), Abinader receives 48.1% of the vote, Castillo 29.1% and Fernández 18.4%.
In a scenario where Ramfis Domínguez Trujillo participates, he would win with 42.9%, Castillo 31%, Leonel Fernandez 18.4%, Ramfis Dominguez Trujillo 3.8% and Guillermo Moreno 1.9%.
This would not be enough to win the election on 17 May 2020. Dominican electoral law requires 50%+1 of the vote to win. Likewise, the Central Electoral Board has yet to determine whether Leonel Fernández can run for another political party and whether Ramfis Dominguez qualifies to run for President since he is a US citizen.
Those polled were asked that if there was no winner in the first round, which two candidates would advance to the second round. They responded as follows: Luis Abinader and Gonzalo Castillo, 55.1%; Luis Abinader and Leonel Fernández, 20.1%; and Gonzalo Castillo and Leonel Fernández, 12.3%.
The same poll looks into the results of a second round. These are 58.8% for Abinader, 34.5% for Castillo, 4.6% for none and 2.1% undecided.
65% of those polled, nevertheless, expressed optimism the election would be decided in a first round vote.
The Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) financed the poll.
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Diario Libre
El Dia
12 November 2019