The recent Mark Penn poll shows that support for opposition party presidential candidate Luis Abinader is gaining. The Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) candidate would win the 2020 presidential election set for 17 May 2020 in all scenarios. Nevertheless, Abinader still does not have enough votes to pull a win in a first round, according to the poll that was carried out nationwide 8 to 10 January 2020. Some 1,030 eligible voters were polled. The survey has a margin of error of 3% plus or minus.
According to the poll that was published by Grupo SIN on Tuesday, 15 January 2020, Abinader would get 43% of the vote. The presidential candidate for the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) would get 28%, Leonel Fernández running for the People’s Force 19% and Guillermo Moreno 3%. 6% said they are undecided and 1% said they would vote for other political parties. The poll reflects the effects of the split of the ruling party, with 60% now backing Gonzalo Castillo and 40% former President Leonel Fernández.
The approval ratings, according to the poll are:
Luis Abinader 43% (up from 31% before the split within the PLD)
Gonzalo Castillo 28% (down from 36% before the 6 October primary)
Leonel Fernández 19% (down from 36% before the 6 October primary)
Undecided 6%
The poll indicates that Luis Abinader receives most of his support from men and independents. Gonzalo Castillo has the backing of women and young people and 72% of the PLD members. Leonel Fernandez received 22% of the vote of the PLD members and 19% of the independents.
The poll reveals that neither of the contenders will get enough votes to win in a first round. The electoral law requires the vote to be 50%+1 to win in a first round. In a second round between Luis Abinader (PRM) and Gonzalo Castillo (PLD), Abinader would win with 56% to 35% that would vote for Castillo. As reported, Abinader would capture 53% of those that voted for Leonel Fernández and 59% of the independent voters. Gonzalo Castillo would win only 14% of the votes of the People’s Force (Leonel Fernández) and 32% of the independents.
In the unlikely scenario that in a second round Abinader compete with Fernández, Abinader would take the election 57% to 31%, even with 50% of the PLD voters backing Fernández. Meanwhile, Abinader would get 98% of the PRM vote and 59% of the independents.
In the also unlikely case that the second round candidates be Gonzalo Castillo and Leonel Fernández, Castillo would defeat Fernandez 40% to 38%, with a 19% abstention. The poll indicates that Castillo would receive 70% of the PLD vote and 10% of the People’s Force vote. Fernandez would receive 90% of the People’s Force vote and 28% of the PLD vote.
In the scenario where the Constitutional Court decides that Leonel Fernández cannot run for president for the People’s Force because he competed for the presidential nomination in the PLD primary, 53% say that they would vote for Luis Abinader. In contrast, only 35% say they will vote for Gonzalo Castillo of the PLD.
The same poll reveals that 59% of those surveyed say they are satisfied with the Medina administration, up from 54% in a previous survey. 55% of the independents, 46% of the PRM followers, and 34% of the People’s Force.
55% say former President Leonel Fernández did what was right in resigning from the PLD. 35% say he should not have left.
Those polled by Mark Penn say that crime, insecurity, unemployment, corruption in government and femicides are the main problems in the Dominican Republic.
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Diario Libre
El Nuevo Diario
16 January 2020