One of the leading polling companies in the United States, Cyngal, released data that confirms that opposition party candidate Luis Abinader maintains the same lead he had before the imposition of the National State of Emergency in March 2020 when the first case of Covid-19 virus was notified. According to the findings by Cyngal, the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) candidate more than doubles the vote of his closest competitor, Gonzalo Castillo, who is running for the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD). A previous poll by a highly respected firm, Mark Penn, showed Abinader had declined and the race was now 37% Abinader to 35% Castillo, with Abinader later winning in a second round.
The results of a live phone poll carried out nationwide 26 May to 2 June by Cyngal reveal that Abinader has the support of 45% of the voters, Castillo has 23.2%, Leonel Fernández of the People’s Force (FP) has 11.4%, Guillermo Moreno of Country Alliance (AlPais) has 2.8%. And there is another 17.6% that say they are undecided. Cyngal allots 10 percentage points of those undecided to Abinader, 4.8 to Castillo, 3.6 to Fernandez and 0.2 to Moreno, to bring the totals to 55%, 28%, 14% and 3%, respectively. The spread is more than sufficient for Abinader to take the election in the first round.
In a worst-case scenario, Cyngal says when taking into account only the voters that are sure they will go to vote, Abinader would still win with 51%, while the government party candidate Castillo would receive only 25%.
If none of the presidential candidates were to receive the 50%+1 of the vote, Cyngal says that Abinader would defeat Castillo 55% to 31% in a second-round on 26 July.
The Cyngal poll was carried out 26 May to 2 June 2020 with 1,200 persons surveyed nationwide. The company says that there is a margin of error of 2.95% plus or minus.
This is the first known Cyngal political poll in the Dominican Republic. As reported, Nate Cohn of The Upshot / New York Times rated the Alabama-based polling company as the most accurate pollster in the United States.
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El Nuevo Diario
Cyngal
Cyngal
13 June 2020