On Tuesday, 29 July 2020, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) released an update of its updated global passenger forecast and now forecasts it will take until 2024 not 2023 for travel to return to pre-covid levels. IATA says the recovery in traffic has been slower than had been expected.
IATA reports that for 2020, global passenger numbers (enplanements) are expected to decline by 55% compared to 2019, worsened from the April forecast of 46%.
IATA bases its pessimistic report on the slow virus containment in the US and developing economies, including Latin America, reduced corporate travel and weak consumer confidence. It says that as businesses become accustomed to video conferencing, there will be less interest in corporate travel for in-person meetings in the future.
IATA says there is pent-up demand for visiting friends and relatives and leisure travel. But it warns that consumer confidence is weak in the face of concerns over job security, catching Covid-19 and the economy.
It is seeing that domestic markets are opening ahead of international markets. It explains that because passengers appear to prefer short-haul travel in the current environment, passenger traffic will recover more slowly. Air travel is expected to return to 2019 levels in 2024, one year later than previously forecast. Scientific advances in fighting COVID-19 including development of a successful vaccine, could allow a faster recovery, says the report. So far, the reality is that the number of cases around the world continues to rise.
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IATA
29 July 2020