Economist Bernardo Vega shares more of his insights into the findings of the recent Mark Penn/Stagwell poll. He says that readings of the findings in the poll are more important than trying to predict who will be the next President, in his remarks for Noticias SIN.
He mentions crime as a major problem did not exist in the Dominican Republic from 1960 to 1980. He says now some people openly comment the country may need to apply Bukele measures, referring to the El Salvador president who has cracked on criminal gangs in his country reaching new highs in popularity.
He mentions the large number of voters that are calling themselves independents – 33%. Independents are people who do not belong or sympathize with a political party. “When we started polling more than 40 years ago, barely 7% declared themselves independent,” he observes.
“The fact that a third of those polled declared themselves independent suggests a very volatile vote because it is not tied to political parties. But in addition, the political parties themselves are very discredited and the one most favorably viewed, according to the survey, the PRM, is only at 48%, that is to say, below 50%,” he writes in Noticias SIN.
Vega observes Dominicans are pessimistic, with 66% thinking that the economy is headed in the wrong direction. 67% say their family’s economic situation has worsened over the past three years. This is in a country that is the best performing Latin American economy in recent years. The international situation may help but it may also hurt Abinader’s electoral prospects, he writes.
While Haiti has been in the headlines of the media for years, only 2% of those polled include it among the country’s main problems since they perceive it does not directly affect their pockets, he explains.
Vega expects the upcoming political campaign to be a negative campaign – that is one where the focus will be on the dirt candidates can throw at each other rather than on propositions and how to solve the problems.
He says it is likely that government supporters will focus on reminding voters about the corruption during the 12 years of former President Leonel Fernandez (who aspires to return to the Presidency), while court cases continue against former top-ranking officials and suppliers to the Danilo Medina administration.
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Noticias SIN
31 May 2023