The Diario Libre-Greenberg poll reveals no single political party has sufficient votes alone to defeat President Luis Abinader’s bid for a second four-year term in the 19 May 2024 election. Abinader, nevertheless does not have the votes to win in a first round, yet is expected to take the second round election. While 50%+1 vote is needed in a first round, in the second round the most voted candidate takes the presidency.
The Diario Libre-Greenberg poll reveals that the split Dominican Liberation Party (PLD), now divided into the Fuerza del Pueblo (People’s Force) of dissident former President Leonel Fernandez and the PLD of former President Danilo Medina with Abel Martinez, the mayor of Santiago, as candidate, does not have the vote to win in a first or second round.
The Diario Libre-Greenberg poll says that if Fernandez were the runner-up candidate in the 19 May election, Abinader would defeat him 56% to 40%. Fernandez has a strong unfavorable rating after having been President of the Republic for three terms (1996-2000, 2004-2008 and 2008-2012).
If the election were against Abel Martinez of the PLD, Abinader would win 55% to 39%.
After a first three years in government, Abinader has a 65% approval rating, according to the poll. But the same poll indicates he is likely to receive only 49% of the vote, slightly below the 50%+1 vote needed to win in a first round.
Nevertheless, the poll reading tells Abinader and his campaign manager that the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) candidate has to work harder to attract the younger generations and large segments of the vulnerable and low-income population who do not feel the President has improved their lot, but rather is working for big business.
Read more in Spanish:
Diario Libre
5 December 2023