The three leading international polls covering the Dominican presidential election on 19 May 2024 — Greenberg/Diario Libre, MarkPenn/Stagwell and RCC Media/Gallup — were accurate in their forecasts of the win of President Luis Abinader, showing they are reliable sources of predicting an election. Abinader (Modern Revolutionary Party) won with 57%, to 29.3% of Leonel Fernandez (People’s Force) and 10.2% of Abel Martinez (Dominican Liberation Party).
Given the around 3% plus or minus margin of error, the polls were almost especially accurate in forecasting the vote of Abinader and Martinez, not so that of Leonel Fernandez. Fernandez did better than expected percentage-wise.
The polls had forecast:
Mark Penn/Stagwell/SIN (6 May 2024): Luis Abinader 57%, Leonel Fernández 24%, Abel Martínez 12%.
Gallup-RCC Media (1 to 4 May 2024): Abinader 60%, Leonel Fernandez 24.6%, Abel Martinez 11.1%.
Greenberg/Diario Libre (16-26 April 2024): Luis Abinader 58%, Leonel Fernandez 25% and Abel Martinez 13%.
The vote for Abinader fell below the 61.7% with which former President Danilo Medina won the election in 2016. The Centro Economico del Cibao, the government’s leading polling firm, had issued a poll at last minute showing that Abinader would win with 72%.
Speaking for the Esta Noche con Mariasela after-elections panel on Monday, 20 May 2024, sociologist Rosario Espinal explained that polling in the Dominican Republic is more accurate because there is political stability and there are less undecided voters.
Read more in Spanish:
RCC Media – Gallup
Greenberg/Diario Libre
Diario Libre
Mark Penn Stagwell-Noticias SIN
Centro Economico del Cibao
Esta Noche con Mariasela Esta Noche con Mariasela
21 May 2024