The Gallup-Hoy poll with findings published in Hoy newspaper on 1 October 2018 shows nothing is decided for the 2020 general elections. The poll was carried out from 16 to 21 September 2018.
To the question of “Who would you like to be the next President?,” 14% equally said they would favor the three leading would-be contenders – President Danilo Medina, former President Leonel Fernández for the PLD and former presidential candidate Luis Abinader for the PRM.
When asked who they thought would be the next President, 21.8% expected former President Leonel Fernandez to return to power, 18.6% mentioned President Danilo Medina and 12% Abinader. 33.9% said they were unsure.
Fernández was also shown to have the greatest negative perception rate, at 22.4%, even more than the 19.7% attributed to former President Hipolito Medina, and 15% to President Medina. Only 4% of those polled said they would never vote for Luis Abinader. Of the three, only Abinader has not been in power.
Among voters, there is much uncertainty. 40% said they do not know who will be the political candidates. 23% believe it should be former President Leonel Fernández. 15.8% say it should be President Danilo Medina. Among those partisan to the PLD, 33% said they would vote for Medina, 29.6% for Fernández and 22.7% is undecided.
None of the pre-candidacy hopefuls broke the 5% level in voter support. When people were asked who they thought should be the PLD presidential candidate in the 2020 general elections, the answers were:
Leonel Fernandez 23.6%, Danilo Medina 15.8%, Vice President Margarita Cedeño 4.1%, Francisco Domíngue Brito 2.7%, Santiago Mayor Abel Martínez 2.2%, president of the Senate Reinaldo Pared Perez 15%.
The 2015 Constitution bans Medina from running again from office, but the PLD party has majority in Congress and technically could push through a constitutional amendment to clear this impediment. Medina has said he would announce in March 2019 his decision regarding a second reelection bid. When PLD voters were asked who they would vote for if Medina was not the candidate, the response was 47.1% for Leonel Fernández and 10.5% for Margarita Cedeño.
Regarding the PRM, 32% believe economist Luis Abinader should repeat as the presidential candidate, followed by 10.3% for former President Hipólito Mejía, 8.8% for National District Mayor David Collado.
The best-positioned pre-candidates for the PRSC are Victor Bisonó (Ito) with 16%, José Hazim Frappier with 12%, and Federico Antún Batlle with 4%.
76% of those partisan to the PRD say they are uncertain who will be the party candidate. PRD president Miguel Vargas allied with the PLD into the 2016 elections. He is now the country’s Foreign Minister.
Former AlPais presidential candidate, Guillermo Moreno, was named the better positioned minority party pre-candidate, with 30% of voter favor.
Read more in Spanish:
Hoy
1 October 2018
