As a bucket of cold water, Dominicans and the rest of the world are receiving the news of a recent Harvard University study that says that social distancing may need to be in place through 2022. Under stay-at-home and curfew since 20 March 2020, the Dominican population hoped to return to some kind of normalcy in two or three months. The reality is that even if the Dominican Republic were to stem its own coronavirus epidemic, what happens globally will determine when the country’s main industries can go back to normal.
Locally, the Public Health Minister, Dr. Rafael Sanchez Cardenas, says he can’t tell when Covid-19 will peak in the country and begin to decline. He says the government needs more tests. Only now is testing being stepped up with the arrival of blood antibody tests and the new saliva tests. Since the first positive was announced on 1 March 2020, the country has barely carried out 10,000 tests for a population of more than 10 million people.
As the tests have been so scarce, most people who suspect they have the disease are just told to self-isolate and recover at home. The disease has gradually been spreading, but given the scarcity in testing, no one really knows how many people are infected.
Speaking during the 15 April press conference, Dr. Sánchez Cárdenas says that getting back to normal may depend on the government’s enforcement of stricter circulation rules. He said clusters of cases continue to surge in the capital city and the provinces. He said he would favor at least a week of full quarantine to stop the gradual increase in cases. “It is evident people are not staying at home in many barrios,” he said. He said that if a total lockdown is called, the people must be alerted with time so they can prepare. On previous occasions, any hint of lockdown has caused the food stores and banks to be jammed with people. At best he sees the disease being under control by June.
Nevertheless, on the evening of that same day, Minister of the Presidency and coordinator of the High Commission for the Presidency Gustavo Montalvo responded to the remark made by Dr. Sánchez Cárdenas for at least a one week total lockdown saying that the government does not contemplate a total lockdown.
Epidemiologist Eduardo Perez then shared a more optimistic view on the Esta Noche con Mariasela show on Tuesday, 14 April. He speculated the disease could peak in early May. He forecasts, nevertheless, that people will have to learn to live with the virus staying among us. “The mitigation measures need to become a part of the new normal,” he explained. He said to not do so will bring a second and third wave.
Pérez Then says that people will need to continue going to virtual classes, wearing masks and avoiding public places. He said once more people are tested here, the country will know if the curve is rising or if there will be a plateau in the near future and whether more restrictive measures will be necessary. He expects the disease to be here to stay, in the same way dengue is. “What we have to try to do is avoid people getting infected until the vaccine is developed,” he explained.
Diario Libre in its editorial on 16 April 2020 wraps up the uncertainty. “If something is clear, it is that nothing is clear,” writes Ines Aizpun. “Can we go out from 6am to 5pm… are we not allowed to go to work? There is social tension in the air. The government needs to explain its plan that goes beyond the counting of deaths and fines for those that escape curfew,” she writes.
Read more:
Science Alert
Esta Noche con Mariasela – Eduardo Perez
El Caribe
Listin Diario
Listin Diario
Ministry of the Presidency
Diario Libre
16 April 2020