From 20 to 25 May 2020, Mark Penn/Stagwell pollsters asked 1,000 eligible voters who they would vote for on that day. The answers: the presidential candidate of the Modern Revolutionary Party, Luis Abinader, would obtain 39% of the votes, Gonzalo Castillo of the ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) would get 37%, Leonel Fernández of the People’s Force 10%, Guillermo Moreno of Country Alliance (Al Pais) 1%, and undecided 13%. This is the first time Mark Penn Stagwell polls Dominicans by telephone (mobile). The results mean a costly second round election is likely to happen. Dominican electoral law establishes that to win in a first round 50%+1 of the vote is needed. The first round is scheduled for 5 July 2020, the second round is scheduled for 26 July 2020
In the previous Mark Penn Stagwell person-to-person poll of 1,003 persons, published on 16 January 2020, the numbers were Luis Abinader 43%, Gonzalo Castillo 28%, and Leonel Fernandez 19%, Guillermo Moreno 3%. In a second round, Abinader would win 56% to Castillo’s 36%.
Political analyst Bernardo Vega, who represents Mark Penn/Stagwell in the Dominican Republic, focused on how the Covid-19 pandemic has substantially modified the electoral scene. Abinader in January 2020 had a 15-point lead over Castillo. Now the difference is only two points. Vega points out the difference is within the 3.1% margin of error of the poll. He mentioned that the undecided are at 13%.
Vega said that Abinader has more voters among men and the younger voters; Castillo among women and elder voters. He said the poll revealed that 66% of voters have said they have made up their mind; 18% could change, and 15% is undecided. Only 25% said the outcome of the municipal elections affected their decision for whom to vote.
Vega also highighted the contributions to the Castillo campaign made by Vice President Margarita Cedeño. The Vice President’s office is managing the Dominican government cash relief programs and billions in other social relief programs. She is also an experienced politician.
Vega, a former Dominican ambassador in Washington, D.C., observed that the poll did not include absentee voters. An estimated 8% of Dominicans living abroad are eligible to vote.
Noticias SIN says it sponsored the poll as a service for the public and its clients. Mark Penn has not indicated if a politician is among its clients.
In May 2019, upon the release of a Mark Penn poll, Bernardo Vega spoke of the special difficulties confronting competitors that were polling by telephone when people used mobiles. “Nobody can know where the mobile phone is and who is using it,” said Vega.
But given the Covid-19 virus, the company resorting to polling by phone. Vega said that they worked from a list of 20,000 potential telephone lines, of which 1,000 were chosen for the poll. The margin of error is the same 3% as with the person-to-person poll.
On a previous TV interview with El Despertador of Noticias SIN, in April 2020, he had discarded the trustworthiness of telephone polls saying that data on the profile of the owner of a mobile telephone number is not available. Vega said then that in the Dominican Republic the system of polling by telephone “does not work”.
In the Dominican Republic, with the “gancho” mentality very prevalent [meaning ‘watch it, that this could be a trick’], a large number of people are unlikely to give their real opinions to a telephone survey. Hundreds of thousands of Dominicans are connected to government relief programs by their mobile phones.
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Bernardo Vega – Noticias SIN
28 May 2020