Hoy newspaper published its Gallup poll on Monday, 22 June 2020. The poll was much expected because of the accuracy track record of the company in past elections.
The poll was carried out 12 to 16 June. It was a face to face poll, with those polled receiving a ballot similar to the actual ballot that will be used during the elected, that they marked privately and returned to the pollsters. 1,498 persons were polled. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5%.
According to Gallup, the opposition presidential candidate 53.7% of those polled marked the ballot in favor of Abinader, 35.5% gave their vote to Gonzalo Castillo. Former President of the Republic, Leonel Fernández, now running for an opposition party, would receive 8.6% of the vote, and Guillermo Moreno would receive 1.3%. Abinader is running for the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), Gonzalo Castillo for the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD), Leonel Fernández for the People’s Force (FP) and Guillermo Moreno for Country Alliance (AlPais).
The results show there will not be a need for a second round vote on 26 July 2020 because the winning candidate will receive more than the 50%+1 of the vote needed.
The polling company says that Abinader would receive the vote of 95.7% of those that back the PRM party, 27% of those that identify with the Dominican Revolutionary Party (PRD) and 35% of those that back the Social Christian Reformist Party (PRSC).
When voters were asked who they thought would win the election, 48.8% named Abinader, 33.9% Castillo and 5.2% Fernández. When asked who they would prefer to win, 48.7% said Abinader, 33.4% Castillo and 8.9% Fernández.
Gallup says that 51% of the population gives credibility to the Central Electoral Board (JCE) efforts to organize the 5 July presidential and congressional elections. 46% give little or no credibility to the JCE.
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Past polls:
| PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION POLLING COMPANY | DATE | RESULTS | SPREAD | TYPE/Total polled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies | 12-14 June 2020 | 54% Abinader, 34% Castillo, 9% Fernández, 2% Moreno | 20 points | Telephone / 1,200 |
| Cyngal | 26 May- 2 June 2020 | 55% Abinader, 28% Castillo, 14% Fernández, 3% Moreno | 27 points | Telephone/ 1,200 |
| Centro Economico Cibao | 25-26 May 2020 | 53.5% Abinader, 34% Castillo, 10.3% Fernández, 2.1% Moreno | 19.5 points | Telephone/ 2,000 |
| Mark Penn/Stagwell – Noticias SIN | 20-25 May 2020 | 39% Abinader, 37% Castillo, 10.3% Fernández, 1% Moreno | 2 points | Telephone/ 1,020 |
| Centro Economico del Cibao | March 2020 | 56% Abinader, 28.6% Castillo, 6.9% Fernández, 4.6% Moreno | 27 points | Face to face/ 1,500 persons |
| Mark Penn/Stagwell – Noticias SIN | January 2020 | 43% Abinader, 28% Castillo, 19% Fernández, 3% Moreno | 15 points | Face to face/ 1,003 |
22 June 2020