Investigative journalist Nuria Piera interviewed a cross section of country analysts to look into the past and future for the Dominican Republic. Those on her end of year panel were economist Miguel Collado, industry spokesperson Circe Almanzar, sociologist Cándido Mercedes and journalist Nelson Rodríguez. Piera explain the recap is to create an awareness to not to repeat the same mistakes in 2022.
In her introduction on how the year ended, Piera highlighted that the Central Bank statistics show an expansion of the economy, beyond what was expected. The year should end with GDP growth of more than 11%, and with 4% compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019. The Dominican Republic is a Latin American success story for 2021.
Economist Miguel Collado of the Regional Center for Sustainable Economic Strategies (Crees) explained the high growth in 2021 is natural as it is a rebound after the negative growth in 2020. He says internal and external factors have both driven the growth. He says much more needs to be done because of the high informality levels in jobs (58%). He called the government’s management of the pandemic its greatest economic achievment. He criticized government spending and use of the compensatory budgets. He called for better coordination within the government’s economic team on government spending. He gave the government a 7-8 rating on a scale of 1-10.
Circe Almanzar, executive vice president of the Association of Industries of the Dominican Republic (AIRD) says the year has been positive, especially the last quarter. She spoke of the optimism in the sector, and of how the country has sprung back despite the pandemic. She says the country has gone from uncertainty to certainty. She said the prospects for investments are very positive, with an estimated RD$79 billion announced by 64 companies here. She highlighted the Dominican Republic has done better than most Latin American countries. She mentioned the measures taken by the new government to strengthen institutions, transparency and the judiciary have driven more national and foreign investments. She spoke of the high imported inflation challenge. She praised the government’s decision to not change the rules of the game with a fast-tracked fiscal reform that was postponed last year.
She gave the government 8 on a scale of 1 to 10.
Sociologist Cándido Mercedes of the civic watchdog group, Participación Ciudadana, attributed the positive outlook to the reverting of the confidence crisis inherited from the previous government. He mentioned from a -6% growth in 2020, the country has rebounded to 11% for 2021, and 4% more, when compared to the pre-pandemic year of 2019. He expressed concern for the fiscal sustainability and the high ratio of interest paid on borrowing by government. He said the government needs to carry out a comprehensive fiscal reform. He mentions Latino Barómetro shows President Luis Abinader as the second-highest rated in the region with 61%. He praised the government handling of ethics in management and that the government control organizations are carrying out their roles. He said this generates confidence and has resulted in the private sector leading investment in 2021, at a time when the public sector under the new authorities was still organizing. He gave the Abinader administration a 8 score of 1 to 10.
Executive editor of El Caribe, Nelson Rodríguez had praise for the Central Bank and its governor Hector Valdez Albizu in carrying out policies that helped drive the Dominican economy through the pandemic. He said the monetary authorities had the vision to inject the resources that helped small business deal with the crisis.
He spoke of polls carried out by the government that show that President Abinader has a 70% popularity rate. He mentioned that the same polls show that the popularity of the ruling political party (PRM) is half that of the President. He praised the government for backing productive sectors and support programs for the unemployed. He criticized that heavy borrowing by government continues. He gave the government a score of 7.
Listen to the interviews in Spanish:
Nuria Piera
4 January 2021