The polling firm Gallup places President Luis Abinader (47.7%) as the most likely pre-candidate to win the 19 May 2024 election. Former President Leonel Fernandez (28.9%) is in second place, followed by Santiago Mayor Abel Martinez (19%). The electoral law calls for a presidential candidate to receive 50%+1 of the vote to win in a first round.
When asked, “Which candidate will you vote for,” 50.9% of eligible voters said they would vote for President Abinader, 28.2% would vote for Fernández, while 17.9% would vote for Martínez, 0.1% would vote blank, 2.3% none and 0.6% indicate they do not know.
As for the question, Who do you think will win the May 2024 presidential elections? Those polled answered that they expect Abinader to win (48.2%), Leonel (24.4%) and Abel (11.5%).
To the question: Who would you like to win the presidential elections of May 2024, the voters responded: Abinader and the PRM (47.7%), Leonel for the People’s Force (27.2%), and Abel for the PLD (14.0%).
Meanwhile, President Luis Abinader would most likely win a run-off with former President Leonel Fernandez – 56.1% to 38.5%
Gallup reiterates that former President Fernandez has the highest rejection rate among the electorate. 44.2% of those polled say they would never vote for the leader of the People’s Force.
This is compared to the unfavorable rate of 29.8% for President Abinader and 18.0% for Santiago Mayor Abel Martinez.
In terms of party sympathies, the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) leads with 43.5%, followed by the People’s Force (FP) with 16.8%, and the former ruling Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) close behind with 16.4%.
The second Gallup poll was conducted with a sample of 1,200 face-to-face interviews. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8% and was conducted from 11-14 June 2023.
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N Digital
22 June 2023