A Gallup-Diario Libre in-person survey of 1,200 possible voters (conducted between 28 April and 1 May 2026) published on Monday, 12 May 2026 in the printed edition of the newspaper, reveals that no single political party in the Dominican Republic currently holds enough support to secure a first-round victory for the 2028 general elections. The poll has a 2.8% margin of error and shows a significant number of independent voters who could decide the next presidential election.
The findings depict a fragmented political landscape where the ruling Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) leads with 30.4% of party sympathy, while the People’s Force (FP) and the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) are effectively tied at 19.6% and 19.5%, respectively. In the Dominican Republic, 50% + 1 is needed to win an election in the first round.
The Gallup poll revealed that 23.5% of respondents claim no affiliation with any political organization, suggesting a shift toward individual leadership and performance over rigid party loyalty.
Internal leadership dynamics
The survey highlights the current standing of key figures within the major parties:
Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM)
• David Collado: The poll indicates that the current Minister of Tourism has emerged as the clear frontrunner for the PRM succession, holding 61.8% support among the ruling party sympathizers. Favorability ranking: 60.89% good, 13.8% bad.
• Carolina Mejía: The Mayor of the National District and daughter of former President Hipolito Mejia (2000-2004) follows with 21.1% partisan support. Favorability ranking: 48.29% good, 19.4% bad.
• Vice President Raquel Peña is showing a 2.5% partisan support. The high popularity of President Luis Abinader has not trickled down to her, despite her being the right hand to the President since his first term. Favorability ranking: 40.9% good, 21.9% bad.
Key Insight: Collado also leads nationally in favorability with a 60.8% positive image, suggesting a profile that appeals to both the party base and independent voters.
People’s Force (FP)
• Leonel Fernández: The former President (1996-2000, 2004-2008, 2008-2012) maintains control of the party he founded, with 64.9% support among FP sympathizers. Favorability ranking: 52.8% good, 31.2% bad.
• Omar Fernández: The senator for the National District garners 31.7% internal support but surpasses his father in national positive image (54.2% vs. 52.8%). Favorability ranking: 54.29% good, 15% bad.
Key insight: The FP faces a “generational paradox” and Leonel Fernández remains the institutional anchor, while his son Omar Fernández shows higher potential for expansion among younger, urban voters.
Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) pre-candidate preferences
• Gonzalo Castillo: 48.3% support in the party. He has the backing of former President Danilo Medina (2012-2016, 2016-2020). Favorability ranking: 31.9% good, 38% bad. Castillo ran as candidate in the 2020 election.
• Abel Martínez: 25.3% partisan support. Favorability ranking: 16.3% good, 26.7% bad. Martinez was the PLD candidate in the 2024 election. Martinez is a former president of the Chamber of Deputies and Mayor of Santiago.
• Francisco Javier Garcia: 1.7% partisan support. Favorability ranking: 16.3% good, 26.7% bad. Javier García is a former long-time Minister of Tourism.
Key insight: The PLD shows signs of a “leadership vacuum,” with 21.8% of its sympathizers stating they support “none” of the current options. The party struggles to distinguish its narrative from that of the FP following their 2019 split when then President Danilo Medina favored Gonzalo Castillo as the PLD candidate versus Leonel Fernandez.
The rise of the independent voter
The 23.5% of voters who identify as independent represent a larger bloc than either the FP or the PLD have. This “volatile” segment indicates that the 2028 election may be decided by candidates who can project a managerial, less party-loyal image.
The election pre-campaign period is scheduled to officially open on 4 July 2027, as regulated by the Law 33-18 on Parties, Movements, and Political Organizations.
According to the JCE, other critical dates for the upcoming general election cycle are:
3 October 2027: Deadline for political parties to hold primary elections.
31 October 2027: Deadline for conventions, assemblies, or surveys to finalize candidates.
20 February 2028: Municipal Elections (Mayors, councilors, and directors).
21 May 2028: General Elections (Presidential, Senatorial, and Congressional, including overseas deputies).
25 June 2028: Potential run-off date for a second round of voting, if required.
Read more in Spanish:
Diario Libre
N Digital
JCE
13 May 2026