Dr. William M. Gray, Colorado State University, leading forecaster for Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane activity, predicts this June-November Caribbean hurricane season will be of near average hurricane activity. Based on information obtained through May 1998, the Colorado State University weather team confirms earlier predictions that the total season activity will include 10 named storms (average is 9.3), 50 named storm days (average 47), 6 hurricanes (average 5.8), 25 hurricane days (average 24), 2 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average 2.2), 4 intense hurricane days (average 4.7) and a hurricane destruction potential of 70 (average 71). This year’s activity should be appreciably more than 1997 but less than the unusually active 1995 and 1996 seasons, he says. Still, 1998 should be significantly more active than the average of the generally suppressed hurricane seasons during the last 25 years and especially in comparison to the particularly quiet seasons of 1991-1994. This early June updated forecast is very close to the early April 1998 forecast. An important element entering this updated forecast is the belief that the strongest El Niño on record will be mostly dissipated by the most active portion of the hurricane season from mid-August to late October. If this 1998 hurricane forecast is approximately correct, then the 4-year period of 1995-1998 will have been the most active consecutive four years of hurricane activity on record. The weather scientists forecast a new era of generally greater Atlantic basin hurricane activity. The Colorado State University will issue a final updated forecast for 1998 on 6 August 1998.
