William Gray, of the Colorado State University, who failed to forecast the intensity of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, but has had some past success predicting hurricanes, has warned that the 1999 season could be just as bad. The Atlantic basin will see 14 tropical storms next year, nine of which will grow to hurricane strength, said the researcher. He explained that four of the hurricanes will be "intense," with sustained winds of 111 mph (178 kph) or greater and a strong tidal surge capable of causing extensive damage. He announced that the U.S. East Coast could be particularly vulnerable and faces twice the chance of being hit by a major storm compared to long term averages, while the Gulf of Mexico coast faces a 150 percent greater chance of a major landfall. ”Climatic evidence strongly suggests we are embarking on a new era of enhanced major hurricane activity.” The Atlantic basin is at the beginning of a new era of increased hurricane activity, Gray said. The periods from 1900-25 and 1970-94 were relatively quiet, but activity picked up dramatically in 1995 with 19 named storms, the second most ever recorded. Yet in 1997, a strong El Niño, the Pacific warm water phenomenon that dampens Atlantic hurricane activity, flattened what had been predicted to be a busy season. Only seven named storms formed, three of which became hurricanes. Gray had predicted 11 storms maturing into six hurricanes. The Atlantic hurricane season that ended on November 30 produced 14 tropical storms, 10 of which became hurricanes. Three of those storms were intense. Gray had predicted 10 storms and six hurricanes, with two of them becoming intense. The 1998 season is considered one of the deadliest and most destructive in history, with Mitch and Georges causing the most death and destruction. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November.
