An analysis of the Gallup poll results shows that the middle class is the strongest ally of the PLD, with 66% favoring Leonel Fernandez for President. Fernandez also has the support of 62.9% of those identified as poor and 58.5% of the wealthy. Interestingly, Estrella has strong support from the wealthy with 20.8% of their projected votes, 14.9% from the most poor and 12.6% from the middle class. President Mejia finds the bulk of his supporters in the lower-income segments with 14.9%, followed by 13.2% from more affluent sectors and 12.6% from the middle class.
Regarding gender, Fernandez has a stronger following among women than among men. Of those polled, 64.7% of women would vote PLD, 13.7% for the PRD’s Mejia and 13.5% for Estrella of the PRSC.
The numbers also revealed that 11.5% of those who have supported the PRD in the past would vote for Fernandez in 2004, while 18.4% of former PRSC advocates would also cross over to the PLD. A solid 95.4% of PLD party members would cast their vote for Fernandez. Mejia has 68.1% of his party members’ loyalties, 0.8% of whom sympathize instead with the PLD and 1.6% who favor the PRSC. Estrella has the support of 76.2% of his fellow PRSC members, while 7.7% of those remaining are leaning to the PRD and 1.7% to the PLD.
An alliance between the PLD and the PRSC, which could net a sweep in the first round of voting, would reportedly be supported by 62.9% of those questioned. Only 19.7% favor a similar alliance between the PRD and the PRSC. Overall, 59.6% expressed support for the PLD, 19.6% for the PRD and 15.4% for the PRSC.
Of those polled, 57.5% said they would vote for the better of the candidates, not the least bad and 82% said they would definitely vote in the 16 May election. Of those certain to vote, 85.9% are men and 78.9% are women. Another 17.6% say they will probably vote. Of first-time voters in the 18-24 age bracket, 80.9% said they would vote, while 90.4% of those in the 51-60 age segment felt assured they would cast their ballots on 16 May.