The Gallup-Hoy poll published in Hoy today, Monday 9 February 2015 concludes that the ruling PLD will win the national election of May 2016. Former President Leonel Fernandez is regarded as the strongest candidate in the poll, but he would need to go to a second round to win the 2016 election. The electoral law establishes that to win the presidential election, 50%+1 vote are needed.
The January 2015 Gallup poll considered the possibility that, as has happened in the recent cases of Hipolito Mejia and Leonel Fernandez, the Constitution will again be modified to accommodate the aspirations of the incumbent President. The 2010 Constitution bans the consecutive re-election of President Danilo Medina.
Political analysts point out the significant increase in voter confidence received by minority party presidential pre-candidate Guillermo Moreno of Alianza Pais.
The Gallup poll studied four scenarios with candidates Danilo Medina (PLD), Leonel Fernandez (PLD), Hipolito Mejia (PRM), Luis Abinader (PRM), Miguel Vargas (PRD), and Guillermo Moreno (Alianza Pais).
The scenarios presented to voters by Gallup and the results were:
Leonel Fernandez (39.8%), Guillermo Moreno (23.8%), Hipolito Mejia (17.8%), Miguel Vargas (4.7%).
Leonel Fernandez (39.0%), Luis Abinader (23.9%), Guillermo Moreno (18.2%), Miguel Vargas (6.3%). In an August 2014 Gallup poll, 45% had said they would vote for Fernandez.
If the Constitution is modified and Medina is allowed to seek re-election, the scenarios would be:
Danilo Medina (69%), Luis Abinader (13.4%), Guillermo Moreno (8.9%), Miguel Vargas (3.1%).
Danilo Medina (70.5%), Hipolito Mejia (10.7%), Guillermo Moreno (10.5%), Miguel Vargas (1.9%).
http://hoy.com.do/gallup-hoy-en-cuatro-escenarios-candidatos-pld-ganarian-elecciones/
http://hoy.com.do/edicion-impresa-hoy-lunes-9-de-febrero-2015/