taken from the Blog on the weather underground, by Jeff Masters:
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<b style="color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"><big>Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance bringing heavy rains to Mexico and Guatemala</big>
Invest 92E in the Eastern Pacific, centered about 100 miles southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border, will bring very heavy rains capable of causing dangerous flash floods and mudslides to coastal Guatemala and Mexico's Bay of Tehuantepec over the next three days. Radar out of
El Mozotal, Mexico shows that heavy rains have already pushed ashore along the Mexico/Guatemala border, and
satellite loops show an impressive and expanding area of heavy thunderstorms associated with 92E, with some spiral bands beginning to develop on the storm's south side. In their 5 am PDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E a
60% of developing into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday. I put these odds higher, at 80%. The 0Z Monday runs of the GFS and ECMWF both predict that 92E could develop into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With
wind shear a low 5 -10 knots and ocean temperatures a very warm 30?C, conditions are ripe for further development, and I expect 92E will be a tropical depression or tropical storm when it makes landfall on Wednesday along the Mexican coast in the Bay of Tehuantepec.
In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF models are showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.)
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it is large, surrounding conditions are perfect for a fast grow up even that the system is very close to Land, less than a hundred miles off the Mexican/Guatemalan Border.
we can expect this season a good number of fast uppopping system close to land at different locations, we have very high SSTemps present along long portions of the northamerican SE shores, in the Gulf of Mexico, thru may locations of the Caribbean Sea and also near our Paradise Island.
the above shown System, threatening Mexico and Guatemala, is wide and will push heavy rains over Mexico, Guatemala, Yucatan and into the SW'ern Caribbean Sea.
no effects for us so far, but it shows under which conditions the 2013 season most likely will run.
right now we have for our own surroundings high windshear present and it will continue to stay on the high level for the next 4-5 days, further ahead the windshear models are sorrily highly unreliable, but they show agreement taht the windshear for our areas will go down after JUne 1st, so by the 2nd week of june we may run good to great conditions for stormy developments right in front of our doors.
I don't await 2013 to provide a boring eventless summer, noap.
Mike