2013, the Storms and the Fisherman in Paradise

[MikeFisher]

The water temp in the DR looks like it is as warm as fort lauderdale and there is a huge difference....something wrong here

the Caribbean Sea bordering the DR is much warmer than the waters around fort lauderdale, and it is shown in the color difference of the Temps indicator on the Map, Mike.
Fort Lauderdale this time of the year should range around what the Puerto Rican Northshores have, 25-26C of SST's, around the trashhold to favor storm develoment,
while the south of Hispaniola is far above that treashhold, our waters ar since long easily ready to assist fast storm development, in case of the OIcean's Sea Surface Temps.we are on around 27C off the East, coldest of the Isle is Samana with maybe 25.5C, the northshores should range around 26.5C and our south runs sure on at least 28C.
the map is anyways only a over all view indicator, not valid to take it for margins on isolated areas/small scale.
on 25C the Storms are not bothered at all by the SST's,
26C ahead they are Turbocharged by the Temps to run faster development of powers,
over 27C and up the storms get a superboost and dvelop their windpowers on the highest possible levels.

Mike

 

[mike l]

the Caribbean Sea bordering the DR is much warmer than the waters around fort lauderdale, and it is shown in the color difference of the Temps indicator on the Map, Mike.
Fort Lauderdale this time of the year should range around what the Puerto Rican Northshores have, 25-26C of SST's, around the trashhold to favor storm develoment,
while the south of Hispaniola is far above that treashhold, our waters ar since long easily ready to assist fast storm development, in case of the OIcean's Sea Surface Temps.we are on around 27C off the East, coldest of the Isle is Samana with maybe 25.5C, the northshores should range around 26.5C and our south runs sure on at least 28C.
the map is anyways only a over all view indicator, not valid to take it for margins on isolated areas/small scale.
on 25C the Storms are not bothered at all by the SST's,
26C ahead they are Turbocharged by the Temps to run faster development of powers,
over 27C and up the storms get a superboost and dvelop their windpowers on the highest possible levels.

Mike

I lived in Ft. Lauderdale for 24 years and lived in the DR for 8 years and believe me the gulf stream which is off the Florida coast makes going to the beach a warm and pleasant experience but the water in the DR is colder.

Sorry to disagree but those maps are wrong as I went for a swim last week on the N. Coast and the water was too cold for me and i have much more insulation ( fat ) than I had in Florida.

 

[MikeFisher]

waters on a beach are a different thing than looking on the sea surface temps of the open water.
those maps a a vague overview of the temp differences for wide regions, nothing locally and nothing of beach waters.
here where i live in a shallow bay the water is much warmer than the shown offshore water temps of course, as the bay gets heated up in it's shallows day by day again by the sun, with little current movement to cool it back down during the night, so its most time very warm.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

sunday night/early monday the northernmost lesser antilles can await some rain and wind from invest 92L, that's all it will be, a little mass of rainclouds moving along the skies, no storm brewing up in that system.
it had the potential, yes, but conditions are against a storm out there, windshear is well above 30 knots and not expected to drop for the next days, looks like that's enough to hinder any development.
it is just a good 600 miles away from the Islands and moving quick WNW on 15mphr.

for this weekend nothing bad to await for our Isle to come up

Mike

 

[caribmike]

Way to go! I prefer them like that!

 

[MikeFisher]

yeah, much appreciated when they stay that way.
without the high windshear we would have by now a quick developing TS just 600 miles east of the Antilles, around 45hrs from a meet&greet with PC Beaches.
but not with us, biatches, stay out there and blow yourself away.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

and a lil update about TS Andrea,
far away from our soil and no chance to become a hurricane,
but Man, what a Biatch.
early this evening(around 9PM) she will leave land again and run over waters, to refill her fuels, she after such a long time over land still a well organized small sized powerpack running below 1000mbars of surface pressure, i bet da Babe will not go down over land in the Carolinas, and it will walk right over the Massachusets Maritimes without any powerloss tomorrow morning for a late breakfast, the path to continue is Nova Scotia completely from the SW to the NE to head for Greenland as the direction. she will stay on a NE'ern Tracking all that time and stay alive for this weekend, ones over the northern areas she may continue as a extratropical storm even much longer, but that far ahead outlook is very uncertain.
the actual shown way, with a lot of rainloads on that path, is coming back over water this evening, walk over Massachusets tomorrow morning and walk Nova Scotia tomorrow evening.
i don't see any pattern which could turn the Storm/change directions, she's a tough lil one, and it is not very positive to see that we watch small but very resistant Storms of low windpower potential to be so tough and longlasting since a few seasons. they are the dangerous ones for the mountainous islands, like our own hometurf.

Mike

 

[Harleysrock]

I lived in Ft. Lauderdale for 24 years and lived in the DR for 8 years and believe me the gulf stream which is off the Florida coast makes going to the beach a warm and pleasant experience but the water in the DR is colder.

Sorry to disagree but those maps are wrong as I went for a swim last week on the N. Coast and the water was too cold for me and i have much more insulation ( fat ) than I had in Florida.

The water has been warm for me to swim in, but I am not from Florida hence we could have a different "Warm".

 

[MikeFisher]

here's the almost live coverage from Sat view of Andrea.
Andrea Visible Imagery Loop (flash) - Satellite Products and Services Division - Office of Satellite and Product Operations

 

[AlterEgo]

Started with a drizzle here in Atlantic City area last night, hasn't let up all day today, pouring rain and water running down the streets.

After Hurricane Sandy last October, I'm much more attuned to weather than I ever have been in my life.

Thanks for all you do for us Mike!!

 

[MikeFisher]

Andrea is actually downgraded as former tropical cyclone Andrea, wordgames of the Meteorologists, lol.
she is still running 40mphr winds/weak TS force and on 996mbars of surface pressure.

and finally sine 10 minutes we get some rain down here in cabeza de toro, a small area of simple rain made the ride over the channel from PR and reached our gardens, very much appreciated, it is stopping already while i type, Radar shows there is a chance to get an other short shower or two during the next hours.

aside of that, all is calm in our surroundings,
tomorrow noon we will se how invest 92L looks alike, to start to guess what is up or not with da thingy.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

just realize a typo in my lst post from yesterday,
Andrea ws not down on 40mphrs, it was 40knots/45mphr.

no changes on the ex TS Andrea remints.
she is running on high forward speed of 35mphr forward NE'wards along the US Eastshores, producing some showers, but nothing of a big case. she will continue her walk during the weekend, passing over coastal Massachusetts and Nova Scotia to Greenland as a Extratropical Storm on the powers of a Tropical Storm Force. nothing special for the Maritime Canucks up there, their usual winterstorms produce more powers, and with Andrea it sure will not snow while it blows.

all clear around our Island, here on the East we are on an other beautiful perfect beach day, no changes expected for this weekend.

92L East of the Leeward Islands did as awaited not develop into anything, the system is going down and will disappear from the maps during the weekend, it's remaints should bring some minor rain to the NE'ernmost Islands, nothing in it for ourselfs.

have a great weekend everyone

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

here is the radar loop over Andrea, most of her heavy rains are gone, she has just her 45mphr winds left, nothing to be concerned about.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

the Gulf has an other Surface Low Pressure throu up, in the east central Gulf of Mexico.
conditions are actually not favorable to get the next Storm up during this weekend, If it develops it will be a slow development and not during the next 24hrs.

all calm and sunny here on the DR Eastshores

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Maps cleared up this evening.
the extratropical remaints of Andrea are gone.
the tropical Wave which popped up east of the Islands is gone, it's leftover clouds are passing well north over open atlantic waters.
the surface low pressure throu in the cetral gulf of mexico diminished activities.

nothing to watch.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

all clear around the Island stormwise, nothing in the work.
here on the East we are today/since last night under the influence of some cloudy/rainy weather that moved up from the southamerican northshores. we are very calm, the lil wind/currents come from the southern directions(usual here is from the East).
today will be a beachday by my own taste, weather wise, as we will have clouds moving through the area changing spots with the sun back and forth, so it will not be that hot and humid which we had lately. isolated by areas we will get some short showers/sprinkling on and off.

happy sunday

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

messy weather from the southamerican coast and the influence of a weak tropical wave that moved along Samana brought hefty rainfalls to wide parts of the Island.
here on the East we stayed as so often mostly dry, some nighttime showers and a few cloudy daytime hours, but i guess that the higher ranges of the center of the Island are still under water.
been in Boca Chica today and hit a lot of rain along the southshores.
we are since this morning back on very calm conditions on the Eastshores, after some strong winds and tough Sea Conditions the last few days.

no Storms in vicinity of our Island and actually none of the models is calling for anything for the next few days.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

3 days without an update, as there simply been nothing to report from the stormfronts.
i guess during tonight we will get an Invest up on the Maps.
we have a large area of rolling thunders over the southwestern caribbean Sea, mingling with a Tropical Wave right there.
even that as such early stage most factors are still unclear, it should get a movement NNW'wards towards the Yucatan Channel during this weekend. if such large area develops it would spread out rainy conditions over a very wide area, which by that position and awaited tracking would bring very likely more water to our Island's anyways wet Mountain Ranges.
conditions are right now not very favorable for development at its position, but as it wanders NNW it will reach for a stormy much more pleasant soil, so my guess is now that we will get something to watch after the weekend.
it should as a whole system, with or without development, be a sure runner for the Gulf/western Cuba again.

nothing else in vicinity

enjoy a fantastic Beach Weekend everyone

Mike

 

[Olly]

Hi mike - Into July and then there is 95l just in the right place for the southern DR !

Any comments ?

Olly and the Team

 

[Drake]

95L looks like its growing a nice tail but probably would not reach Hurricane force as it reaches or passes near to Hispaniola. Its kind of early in the season right now for a big one. Anyone else keeping an eye on this?