no WUD,
Radar never shows it's building or such,
the PR Radar has still just a small first fraction of it on the screen anyways, b/c that radar which i use myself for my short term diagnoses for the next 5-10hrs refelects from San Juan towards the NW, W and SW.
Radar gives a good idea about rainloads, but says nothing about thunderstorms, wondpowers etc.
at this moment 92L is not building up forces, the opposite, it is still spreading out, covering a wider area of influence hr by hr, and by doing so weakening it's powers.
but it is not dead by far and i played this evening myself the game/guess ''what happens if it survives the mountains of hispaniola".
yes, we will get a good share of rain and our mountains will get floodings, the cows should be brought away from the rivers.
the center will most likely pass along our south coast, right there, not far offshore, so our Mountains will give it the next hit.
at the moment it still sucks in dry air and receives hard hits from high windshear, but it stays alive, a fascinating lil beast.
the game i played this eve starts when our rain will be nearly over, let's say around mid wednesday, if it really survives the windshear and dry air and the contact with our Island high mountains, the it would find itself over eastern Cuba, the Jet Stream influence passed, there the conditions will be perfect again to not just stay alive but to gain powers and reach that Tropical Depression Status. the path would be the Florida Keys and the Gulf of Mexico, on all that way til now no model predicts high windshear, for over Cuba it is actually predicted on less than 10mphr, so in such case we would watch the beast for an other week.
but that just my gameplay, it needs to survive the contact with our Dominican Mountains.
for the actual facts:
Antigua reported today max winds of 20 Knots,
so there been nothing increasing, the opposite.
the Islands there received heavy rainfalls, wind been not a prob.
late saturday PR should get tough rain.
what finally will survive and cross the channel to over here, i don't know.
it is weird, and that's fascinating,
a couple days ago i would have bet that it will be dead by today or tomorrow, but it clearly isn't.
let's prepare for strong rain late weekend,
and don't let our mountains survive a piece of it to reach Cuban surroundings to come up again.
Mike