It's like a Yo-Yo, manipulated by "??????"
***does anyone think that the government is in any way manipulating the peso?? ***
I believe so, even not 100% sure. Is that make sense to see the exchange rate fluctuation as what we are seeing now in DR? The exchange rate are decided on either "Free Market Trend" or " Manipulating way by authorities". Do you believe the "business-sector" market needs so much US$ to pay-off the imported purchasing? I doubt it very much.
Because the importing business has been dropped a lot, such as car dealers, electronics, construction materials....etc. Conversely, the govt needs a lot of US $ to pay-off the foreign debts/interests.
The story would be:
1. XYZ has so much available Pesos (bilions, billions) on hand, XYZ knows the Pesos can't be accepted as international monetary instruments in the US, Europe, or any other country/place.
2. Yet, XYZ knows a lot of US dollars about $3.7 billions have been deposited in the Swiss Bank by Dominicans, and also knows there are quite a lot "HIDING CASH" of US$ somewhere on someone's holding. To push the "hiding" US $ out, the easiest way is to devalue the US$. Remember: the Public investors are "extremely affected by the current picture in psychological ways", that's why the US stock market has "Random Walk" theory. Meaning you can not beat up the market price trend by normal thinking, because the market is up and down for uncontrollable reasons. What you can do is make your best judgement and study/research as much as you can do. Therefore, so many different analyses/formula/theories came out, so many different simulations came out.
3. XYZ will figure a way or a pattern to exchange the US $ at the lowest possible price by depleting the excess Pesos reserved which are being held at XYZ's hands, and yet can push the hidding US $ out.
4. When XYZ collects/exchanges enough US $ , then XYZ may ship them out or wire them out, or whitening the money through normal business investment, or paying debts via whatever the ways are.
(One example, not long ago, the FBI detained one DR's official government airplane in Miami and found out a lot of US$ in the bags, unfortunately, the FBI did not release how much money were in those bags, do you believe FBI busted this plane because of the high efficiency/excellent job performance?? or received information from someone who was also member of the group but not satisfied the profits sharing?).
5. After the playing game over, guess what the US $ will be? up or down? Unless XYZ can reproduce the enough amount of the US$ to satisfy the US$ demand in this country.
The bottom line is: Can XYZ reproduce the enough amount of the US$ to satisfy the US$ demand in this country??????
FYI: this is personal think, don't quote. If you bet on Pesos up or down, you have to be willing to take the risk. You are your own boss.
irate: :rambo: :speechles :speechles