Thankfully I avoided all liberal arts courses I possibly could in college, but there are a few points one can take from them.
Forlorn hope is putting it in the mildest of terms. Absolutely farking useless, they will be.
- Thread starter windeguy
- Start date
Waiting for Kenyans to arrive?
Forlorn hope is putting it in the mildest of terms. Absolutely farking useless, they will be.
I wasn't really referring to their gear... I was referring to the people who are wearing the gear. Kenyans, like perhaps all Africans below the Sahara, know what violence is... And how to react to it with violence.
I wouldn't want to be on the other side of the battle line to any African policing force that has been given the order to quell an insurrection.
CNN's attempt to put a human face on the gangs in Port-au-Prince... Giving a different view of what the Kenyan force, if they actually show up, will be confronted with...
If you read my original posts when the UN first proposed to send a contingent of Kenyan Police to assist the Haitian police to bring some semblance of peace and order, you would be aware of my concern about the mercenary nature of the Kenyans. They don’t follow the rules of engagement. This makes them a serious direct threat to the gangs and an indirect threat to the general Haitian population. The possibility of collateral damage, a convenient military euphemism for mass civilian casualties, will be high because of the type of resistance the Kenyans will need to respond to and the environment that will be their battleground.
The Haitian gangs are hard core after years of fighting and they are on home turf. I expect the Kenyans to encounter heavy resistance and to respond in kind. I have no doubt there will be mass casualties on both sides.
I did read your original comment.
But can you provide a reference resource regarding "...the mercenary nature of Kenyans..." and their propensity for not following "...the rules of engagement..."?
I'm asking because the Kenyan force is commonly used by the UN as a part of its peace-keeping force... This suggests that they are not at all "...mercenary..." in nature, or don't follow "...the rules of engagement..."... Two things that the UN would not stand for.
When I suggested their ability/knowledge/experience regarding violence, it was in context to violence being thrown at them and their ability to respond accordingly.
As an armed force often used by the UN for peace-keeping activity, the Kenyans would be trained on how to avoid being a threat to innocent locals so as not to cause collateral damage.
Now, historically speaking, in violent civil disturbances there will always be innocent casualties... And the initial advantage is always with the local force... But in this situation, the gangs are divided in leadership, human force, and territory... Which presents a way to effectively deal with them one gang at a time. And as is common, as one falls, the others become weaker in their constitution to resist.
Don't think for a moment that the US military is sitting this one out and just letting the Kenyans go for it. The US will have informants on the ground and eyes in the sky... And, quite possibly ships out at sea keeping the arms supply at bay... Bullets do run out.
No doubt in could be very bloody to begin with... But the Haitians in these gangs don't really know what they are fighting for... And without vision, chaos eventually reigns... And when your enemy is in chaos, a well-trained force can pick them off one by one.
Every military movement has its walking point position... And it's usually crucial to success... Dangerous, no doubt... But I doubt the Kenyans are inexperienced hothead fools.
MoJoinDR. You have appear to have faith in the UN’s ability to hold the Kenyans accountable for their actions in Haiti. I don’t. I base this on the UN’s inability to hold military forces from Gaza, Russia, Rwanda, and numerous other countries, responsible for the atrocities they committed on civilian populations. As I previously posted, the Haitian problem is a UN irritation and they will treat it as such. The UN has bigger fish to fry in Gaza and other hot spots. Don’t expect close monitoring by UN representatives.
You appear to be well versed in Kenyan history and I assume you are well aware of Kenya’s violent past under British rule and under independence. The Brits made themselves rich and brutalized Kenyan citizens who got in their way. Same for Kenyan politicians who assumed power after the Brits granted Kenya independence. Violence has been and continues to be deeply engrained in the Kenyan psyche.
The most recent example of botched, heavy handed, Kenyan police and military response, the Nairobi Mall incident has been suppressed by the current government but not forgotten by the relatives of the many civilians who were wounded or died at the hands of both the terrorists and the Kenyan forces. The government says they have changed how their military and police forces respond to future terrorist incidents to ensure civilian populations are better protected. Empty political rhetoric. Kenyan memory is short by political intention.
The government mantra is move on and forget about the past atrocities. I don’t believe for one minute the Kenyans will adhere to the rules of engagement when facing overwhelming odds in Haiti and there will be times when they will face overwhelming odds. The Haitian gangs have survived despite the odds against them. They have intimate knowledge of the towns, cities, and streets they operate in and can go to ground in the blink of an eye. They won’t surrender easily.
As for US military assistance controlling weapons supplies to the gangs, we know the futility of that based on similar operations in other world hotspots. It’s virtually impossible to stop the flow of weapons, and drugs for that matter. Other posters have suggested the gangs are backed by wealthy Haitian interests residing mostly in the US. They have been smuggling arms to Haiti for years. If that is the case, I don’t expect it to stop.
If the Kenyans were going to Haiti as part of a UN multinational force for altruistic reasons, I would have more faith in them. The fact is they are there primarily for financial ( mercenary) reasons. A mercenary by any other name is still a mercenary.
If the Kenyans do land on Haitian shores, it will be a test of time, not a test of military strength. Anything they achieve will be temporary unless they are willing to be an occupying force for many years. The reality is they and the other multinational forces will be military puppets of an unpopular interim administration who are political puppets of the US and the UN. Not the best foundation for the establishment of democracy.
You appear to be well versed in Kenyan history and I assume you are well aware of Kenya’s violent past under British rule and under independence. The Brits made themselves rich and brutalized Kenyan citizens who got in their way. Same for Kenyan politicians who assumed power after the Brits granted Kenya independence. Violence has been and continues to be deeply engrained in the Kenyan psyche.
The most recent example of botched, heavy handed, Kenyan police and military response, the Nairobi Mall incident has been suppressed by the current government but not forgotten by the relatives of the many civilians who were wounded or died at the hands of both the terrorists and the Kenyan forces. The government says they have changed how their military and police forces respond to future terrorist incidents to ensure civilian populations are better protected. Empty political rhetoric. Kenyan memory is short by political intention.
The government mantra is move on and forget about the past atrocities. I don’t believe for one minute the Kenyans will adhere to the rules of engagement when facing overwhelming odds in Haiti and there will be times when they will face overwhelming odds. The Haitian gangs have survived despite the odds against them. They have intimate knowledge of the towns, cities, and streets they operate in and can go to ground in the blink of an eye. They won’t surrender easily.
As for US military assistance controlling weapons supplies to the gangs, we know the futility of that based on similar operations in other world hotspots. It’s virtually impossible to stop the flow of weapons, and drugs for that matter. Other posters have suggested the gangs are backed by wealthy Haitian interests residing mostly in the US. They have been smuggling arms to Haiti for years. If that is the case, I don’t expect it to stop.
If the Kenyans were going to Haiti as part of a UN multinational force for altruistic reasons, I would have more faith in them. The fact is they are there primarily for financial ( mercenary) reasons. A mercenary by any other name is still a mercenary.
If the Kenyans do land on Haitian shores, it will be a test of time, not a test of military strength. Anything they achieve will be temporary unless they are willing to be an occupying force for many years. The reality is they and the other multinational forces will be military puppets of an unpopular interim administration who are political puppets of the US and the UN. Not the best foundation for the establishment of democracy.
Recently read of the history of the French Foreign Legion. Fascinating stuff! Volunteers who joined to escape a former life to live a military life of desperation and overwhelming survival odds. A true example of forlorn hope. They suffered massive losses in Camerone supporting the Mexican Army in their fight against insurgents. Every year the Legion solemnly celebrates this tragic loss. They fought valiantly for France against insurgents in French Algeria, basically a lost cause, and DeGaulle granted Algeria independence in the end. The Legion felt betrayed and tried unsuccessfully to assassinate DeGaulle. Despite that the French love their Foreign Legion.
I hope the Kenyans and the other multinational forces can bring order to Haiti’s civil war and not go down in history as another group of forlorn hope volunteers. There is too much at stake for the DR and others.
the US Secretary of Defense was in Kenya months ago promising Kenya that the US would 'foot the bill', the story and video was all over the news
Unfortunate maybe, necessary yes. Someone has to take the lead on the festering Haiti problem. Biden and Trudeau stepped up because the UN didn’t. The US, Canada, and the DR to a lesser extent were under UN pressure to to more for Haiti. The US and Canada have the option of throwing money at the problem and providing training and equipment. The DR doesn’t.
Think of it this way. If the intervention actually works, you as a DR citizen will benefit because the DR government will have more resources to eliminate water and electricity infrastructure problems. Whether they do that or not remains to be seen but it’s a possibility. Silver lining Windy!
IFF it works and pigs fly.
It won't. But a 1,000 or so Kenyans will die.
The US loves its proxy wars that never seem to end.
It is great for the arms and movie makers,
What a joke:
It’s expected to be a somewhat small group, up to 200 personnel, Johnston also told NatSec Daily. And that number of forces is very unlikely to quell the violent gangs wreaking havoc on Haiti.
When the first forces step foot in Haiti, they also might not have a place to go. The Defense Department hasn’t finished construction on a facility in Haiti that would house the security forces, Johnston and the others said.
The Pentagon pledged to build a base and medical facility, “but that has yet to happen,” Johnston said. “Without the infrastructure, it’s unclear how any sort of larger-scale deployment would be feasible.”
It’s unclear where else Kenyan forces would be housed. The National Security Council, State Department and Defense Department did not respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment.
It’s expected to be a somewhat small group, up to 200 personnel, Johnston also told NatSec Daily. And that number of forces is very unlikely to quell the violent gangs wreaking havoc on Haiti.
When the first forces step foot in Haiti, they also might not have a place to go. The Defense Department hasn’t finished construction on a facility in Haiti that would house the security forces, Johnston and the others said.
The Pentagon pledged to build a base and medical facility, “but that has yet to happen,” Johnston said. “Without the infrastructure, it’s unclear how any sort of larger-scale deployment would be feasible.”
It’s unclear where else Kenyan forces would be housed. The National Security Council, State Department and Defense Department did not respond to NatSec Daily’s request for comment.
I have no faith in fallen humanity… Let’s get that straight.
Regarding “…the UN’s ability to hold the Kenyans accountable for their actions in Haiti…”, you’ve not provided a single shred of evidence that supports your position.
As I stated in my earlier comment… The Kenyan forces have been used all around the world by UN peacekeeping efforts for going on 30+ years, beginning with the UN Iran–Iraq Military Observer Group (UNIIMOG) from 1988-1990… And they are highly regarded by the UN as a useful continent within their peacekeeping force.
Regarding “…the UN’s inability to hold military forces from Gaza, Russia, Rwanda, and numerous other countries, responsible for the atrocities they committed on civilian populations…”.
It is not the UN’s peacekeeping agenda “… to hold military forces from…” anything… The UN’s peacekeeping agenda is to be an instrument that can help countries torn by conflict create the conditions for lasting peace. It is under this guiding statement that UN peacekeeping forces carry out their mission. And there is no UN peacekeeping force in Gaza… There is only a UN aid effort taking place. There are though, UN peacekeeping forces in northern Israel, and they are trying to make sure that what is happening in Gaza does not escalate in the area of the Israel/Lebanese/Syrian border.
UN peacekeeper forces monitor and observe agreed-upon and implemented peace processes in post-conflict areas and assist ex-combatants in implementing the peace agreements they may have signed. In this, the UN peacekeepers' assistance to the countries they are serving comes in many forms, including separating former combatants, confidence-building measures, power-sharing arrangements, electoral assistance, strengthening the rule of law, and economic and social development. UN peacekeepers can include soldiers, police officers, and civilian personnel.
There is no UN peacekeeping initiative in Russia.
In Rwanda, the U.N. peacekeeping force was limited by a very narrow mandate. Officially, UN peacekeepers are tasked by the U.N. Security Council with monitoring, assisting, and investigating crimes and violence. Soldiers may only use force in self-defense or to help evacuate foreigners.
When the violence erupted all over the country in 1993, the very narrow mandate limited what the UN forces could do… And even if they had a broader mandate, because of the small size of the UN forces, and the light arms they had, it is thought that they could not have done much more than perhaps save a limited amount of lives, beyond the lives that they did save.
And be sure... The UN, the US, Canada, and all other countries with a vested interest will most certainly be closely monitoring what happens in Haiti in regard to the Kenyan force... That's what they get paid to do.
I enjoy world history... And yes, I have some knowledge of the violence that has taken place over the decades in Kenya... First with their fight for independence from British rule... And then during decades of the oppressive regime of President Moi, in which repression, corruption, and ethnic favoritism were the norm.
The British ruled what became Kenya for 70 years... And old habits die hard.
Additionally, Kenya shares borders with Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Uganda... And all have their own problems that spill over into Kenya.
Africa is a rough place... It's just what it is... And surviving in Africa can be hard.
But again... Present the source that shows us Kenyan forces serving in UN peacekeeping initiatives have been violent and not acted according to stipulated rules.
I'm pretty sure you would violently defend your home, Economan1949... But would be more peaceful as a guest in someone else's home.
No doubt the Westgate Mall incident was poorly handled by Kenyan forces... Hopefully, like forces in many other countries that have suffered terrorist attacks, they have learned from their mistakes.
Do I need to name all the developed world countries that have made mistakes when handling terrorist attacks?
Welcome to the way of world governments... And everyone can have their opinion... And who knows... One day your opinion stated above may prove correct... Or may prove incorrect.
The Haitian gangs have had no real "...odds against them..."... Most Haitians turned a blind eye to them until they became the thorn in the side of Haiti and Western governments that they are today.
But the Kenyan force may be different than what they have previously confronted... Armed Kenyan forces have never been in Haiti... This is something new.
Where exactly are you referring to by "...we know the futility of that based on similar other hotspots..."?
Again... Generalities are pretty meaningless.
Haiti is much closer to the US than other countries the US has been in conflict with... And I can't remember the UN being involved in any peacekeeping effort in the Caribbean.
And why would "...wealthy Haitian interests residing mostly in the US..." want to smuggle guns to Haiti?
All UN peacekeeping forces are paid... And there is always a specific peacekeeping agenda that the UN effort is subject to.
Shoot... All military and police forces are paid... Are you saying that all are mercenaries?
I wonder if you know what a mercenary is.
Mercenary work doesn't have an allegiance to a just cause... It is simply given to the highest bidder... And that's not what has happened here.
And every recovery has a beginning... And the beginning of a recovery and not usually squeaky clean and clear... I'm pretty sure there will be failures and other hurdles to overcome... But at least it presents a beginning to this end... If it does actually take place.
We'll see.
MojoinDR. I’ve enjoyed our discussion, however, our views differ greatly on many aspects of the proposed Haitian intervention and the best we can do is to agree to disagree on our differences. Like you, I do hope something positive happens in Haiti. I’m not as pessimistic as some posters but I don’t view the proposal through rose coloured glasses. It’s fraught with political and cultural pitfalls.
I agree with your succinct comment on your last post,”We’ll see”. Our posts are speculation based on personal perspective. History will be the ultimate arbiter of the effectiveness of the proposed intervention, not us.
The tone of your responses to my posts was always civil and I appreciate it. As you’re well aware, discussions here can get ugly very quickly despite the moderators attempts to rein in abrasive posters.
I don’t know if you’ve read Canadian Lieutenant-General Romeo Dallaire’s book Shake Hands With the Devil: The failure of Humanity in Rwanda. His eyewitness account as a UN observer. It’s an interesting read and says a lot about the UN’s shortcomings.
Enjoy your day.
I agree with your succinct comment on your last post,”We’ll see”. Our posts are speculation based on personal perspective. History will be the ultimate arbiter of the effectiveness of the proposed intervention, not us.
The tone of your responses to my posts was always civil and I appreciate it. As you’re well aware, discussions here can get ugly very quickly despite the moderators attempts to rein in abrasive posters.
I don’t know if you’ve read Canadian Lieutenant-General Romeo Dallaire’s book Shake Hands With the Devil: The failure of Humanity in Rwanda. His eyewitness account as a UN observer. It’s an interesting read and says a lot about the UN’s shortcomings.
Enjoy your day.
i agree Windy. It’s not about military strength. It’s about the long haul. An intervening military force of any size will need to become occupiers for years to ensure Haiti stays peaceful and progresses democratically.
The UN definitely needs to be changed for the better. The elimination of the Big Boys Club and their veto powers in the Security Council would be a good first step. That might level the UN political playing field and increase their credibility.