Section 5 : Application of the Methodology to New York
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The methodology employed here can be used in other population stratification levels such as cities,
or Metropolitan Statistical Areas. To illustrate this point the model is applied to the City of New York.
The shift-share technique
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is used on the US Census (Summary File 4) population data for New York City to determine the number
of potential adult voters. The results of these calculations, presented in Table 7, are
compared to the Census’ own
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estimates for the city and Latino groups. The benefit to using the state level
data as done in this report is that it can be employed nationally while the US
Census city level citizenship data would limit the research scope.
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Table 7: Estimates of New York City’s Latino Citizenship Population by Group Using State Level Data
| Universe |
Total Population |
% Citizen |
Number of Citizens |
% of Adult Citizens |
Number of Adult Citizens |
| Total |
8,008,278 |
89.02 |
7,128,969 |
65.74 |
5,264,642 |
| Latino |
2,161,530 |
73.07 |
1,579,430 |
43.59 |
942,211 |
| Puerto Rican* |
784,297 |
99.25 |
778,415 |
67.53 |
529,636 |
| Dominican |
425,739 |
56.28 |
239,606 |
32.95 |
140,281 |
| Mexican |
177,527 |
42.90 |
76,159 |
17.67 |
31,369 |
| Colombian |
81,566 |
55.18 |
45,008 |
39.29 |
32,047 |
| Cuban |
41,474 |
83.71 |
34,718 |
67.11 |
27,833 |
| Salvadorian |
25,266 |
42.57 |
10,756 |
20.28 |
5,124 |
Source: US Census Bureau Summary File 4,
percentage of adult citizen based on state level data. *For the sake of consistency Puerto Ricans
were included in all calculations. While we recognize the citizenship privilege they possess as
American citizens upon birth, the census does present (either through self-reporting error or special
circumstances) a small percentage of Puerto Ricans that were in fact naturalized.
While these numbers are understated because figures have not been adjusted for misrepresentation,
it is still a good first line approximation for estimating voter capacity. The above data also serves
to illustrate the validity and precision of the results in this report by testing the accuracy of
our data. The citizenship estimates generated from both state and city level Census sample data were
compared. The results are listed below in Table 8.
Given the high concentration of Latinos in metropolitan areas like New York City, the percentage
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of citizens and of adult citizens are very similar when comparing the state level results with US
Census city level data. It is important to note that among Latinos, the highest positive observed
difference is in the percent of adult citizens from the Mexican population. For the sake of comparison
suppose the city-level data has greater accuracy. The highest negative observed difference is in the
percentage of adult Salvadorian citizens. This means that Salvadorian are under represented in the state
level-based data of this report.
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While Mexicans could have high citizenship rates statewide,
the Mexican state-level generated adult citizen data shows an over
representation at the city level. The observed differences in the data
could be explained by ethnic residential patterns. The fact that Mexicans
have the highest positive percentage difference could be attributed to their
tendency to be more dispersed throughout other parts of New York State; Salvadorians,
on the other hand, tend to be more concentrated in urban areas, following a similar residential
pattern observed in the Dominican community.
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