2016 Hurricane Season

bob saunders

bob saunders

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 74.1W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma, and Las
Tunas.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the north coast of Haiti
from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward to the border with the Dominican
Republic.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, including
the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, and Long Cay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, and Long Cay
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 74.1 West. Matthew is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
north tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
approach southwestern Haiti and Jamaica on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti this evening, and
eastern Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
15 to 25 inches over southern Haiti, with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 40 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over eastern Jamaica, the Dominican
Republic and eastern Cuba, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 25 inches. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash
floods and mud slides.

Matthew is expected to produce additional rain accumulations of 1 to
2 inches over Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire through today. Matthew is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over
northern Colombia, northwest Venezuela, and western Jamaica, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...6 to 9 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg
 
M

mountainannie

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Dec 11, 2003
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Question--??
?
Is there anything that can/will/might either dissipate/diminish or augment/increase the size and force of this storm before it hits land in Jamaica, Cuba or Haiti? Could it go back up to a Cat5 or down to a Cat3? Dump a lot of the water at sea?

I learned that when a storm reaches Cat5 its name is retired forever.. Guess that is the honor that the weathermen give to them. So there will never be another Matthew.
 
K

kfrancis

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Jan 8, 2002
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Observation from the Frontier

Greetings to you all from Cabral, Barahona RD

For what it is worth I will try to give a local view of what is happening with this storm from here on the Frontier.

Yesterday evening we had one of the outer bands come on by and give a good bit of rain for just under an hour and then nothing more. This morning we are overcast with a slight breeze but you can get the feeling it is the proverbial " calm before the storm ".

From what I am seeing on the computer it looks like a " very slight " movement back towards us with the eye still forecast to run up the channel between Cuba and Hispaniola. This of course means we should see a good bit of heavy rains over an extended period of time for us here in the RD but with Haiti taking the " brunt of the hit "...something they definitely do not need...but hey they are the ones who cut down all their trees.

However, the storm is quite large and the area that will be affected will be wide spread but hopefully here on the Frontier we will be spared the high winds and let the Sierra de Baorucos break the storm apart a bit for us.

The coast will see the high surge but this is one time that our rocky beaches, where the mountains go into the sea along the Larimar Coast, will be spared a lot of the erosion that sandy beaches would experience. Am a bit concerned with what happen further down the coast from Oviedo over to Pedernales. This is on the other side of the Baorucos and therefore will raked quite hard with the winds and storm surge.

For now all is quite on the Frontier.

later.

kFrancisco de Cabral
 
C

charlise

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Bob Saunders: That's a lot of information that you posted. But for me, who is a little blonde, can you resume in 3-4 words, what the impact will be or what should I expect and when ??? I'm in Sabaneta de Yasica, so not that far for Puerto Plata.



And don't get me wrong, I'm not stressed or anxious..... No way !! I've been waiting 5 years for that experience... Can't wait.... Thanks...
 
beeza

beeza

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Nov 2, 2006
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Looking at the satellite pictures it looks like two contra-rotating cells. *I would imagine that the windshear between them must be immense. *Just like George Clooney's "Perfect Storm".

hicbsat_None_anim.gif
 
D

Dolores1

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May 3, 2000
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Bad storm. It is trekking a very damaging slow 7km according to the 8am NHC bulletin with tropical storm force winds felt up to 350 kms away. It has winds of 240 km per hour -- almost a David (from 1979). Unless it moves further west, which forecasts now say is unlikely, it will slam Haiti, where thousands are still living in tents and makeshift houses.
 
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windeguy

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Jul 10, 2004
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Probably get some rain here on the north coast in the Cabarete area. Looks like Tuesday morning will be the closest approach as Matthew devastates at least the western part of Haiti.
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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the last few hours Matthew is tracking NW on 5mphr.
don't get fooled by the actual track, as it would bring it to central or western Jamaica and then Central Cuba, well away from Hispa?iola.
during today it will stop the NW motion and walk more N, amost straight north, with NNE'er jumps on the way.
teh Low Pressure System NE of the Islands is what openes the path for Matthew to head in unusual diections, make that unusual turn, become a almost "wrong way Matty".
Jamaica should get spared from the toughest and stay a good hopp on the West of the Center.
Western Haiti is according to the Tracking Models almost a guaranteed Hit.
now that western Tip of the haitian Peninsula is just a lil piece, nobody should be there by the end of the day,
BUT this Storm is big and it's powerful Eastern side will walk all Haiti from S to N
and also affect the DR Side from S to N.
depending how close and strong the Through comes to Influenece, TS Forces for Puerto Plata are not out of the possibilities.

to estimate if it could reach Your area, look on the forecast dots on the maps and add the following:
** Hurricane Force Winds are sent only 25 miles out of the Center
** Tropical Storm Force winds are sent 200 miles out from the center
** towards eastern directions i would calculate at least 250 miles, maybe 300 miles of Reach-Out for TS Force winds.
** Waterloads, Haiti can await all around 15 inches of water, 20 in the tougher areas, 40!!! in some isolated hard core areas
** Western DR should stay fine with 10-15 inches, maybe a 20 in some isolated hard core locations

this Storm will continue to "change position and direction", on the maps it will continue to jump left and right/east and west,
because the steering currents are down/very weak, hence it is moving so slow forward and spent so many many long hours stationary. that's why that not so strong Through is capable to change the directions of a big Storm, which otherwise would have passed us far down South and would have gone towards Yucatan.

an other important point: slow movement.
moving only on around 5mphr and once touching Land it may again stand down several times for hours,
means this one will not come and go quickly. the opposite, it comes slowly and stays for a long time.

roundevouz time is sheduled with the western tip of the haitian peninsula for monday night/eraly tuesday morning.
the shown tracking for the next 48hrs shows agreement of all Model, so it can be taken as a very sure thing, the forecasts for the next 24hrs ahead of time can be taken as sure facts.

Matthew will not cross the 75th"W, so it stays away from Jaimaica,
due the steering influence from up NE a more eastwards jump is always possible.

Mike
 
J

jimbobo

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Feb 9, 2014
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I just got an email from Puerto Bahia Marina, that all boats there have to leave to the nearby lorenzo bay or take them out of the water, due to expected swells and high water surge....
 
J

ju10prd

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The eastern 'blob' is still there and actually seems more detached and with plenty of towering clouds........and if that runs due north soon as you mention, it will be in our backyard........the edge is east of the 70W line.

http://dr1.com/forums/showthread.php/157613-2016-Hurricane-Season/page30

Mike, is there any way we could see the thunderstorm strikes activity in the eastern 'blob'? I assume they are there just that as the graphic the other day on WU?
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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ju10prd said:
The eastern 'blob' is still there and actually seems more detached and with plenty of towering clouds........and if that runs due north soon as you mention, it will be in our backyard........the edge is east of the 70W line.

http://dr1.com/forums/showthread.php/157613-2016-Hurricane-Season/page30

Mike, is there any way we could see the thunderstorm strikes activity in the eastern 'blob'? I assume they are there just that as the graphic the other day on WU?
Click to expand...

here you see the windy areas.
the "blob" is heavy tackle

Mike

at201614_wind.gif
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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i don't see Barahona that much in harms way.
the long distance outreaching TS Force winds are on the far NE of the Storm Center.
if the Storm makes a eastwards jump, it will take place slightly before or during the day after the approach of western Haiti.
by that time the far away storms will already have passed the Altitude of Barahona.
the Northern Regions of DR are the ones who should get this closer than Barahona.
take on that Map the Red Hurrican Force area and place it on the western tip of the haitian Peninsula,
then put the yellow TS Force graphic over it and see where the NE part of the yellow points to.
and from there it all moves almost straight North, it includes probabilities of several miles drifting East once the Storm reached up there.

Mike
 
M

mountainannie

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probably the most threatened population on the island live in the city of Gonaives.. In the post that Bob put up, the sea surge in that bay are predicted for 3 to 5 feet. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=35398

est 300,000 people live in Gonaives (2011 )

here is a satellite map http://mapcarta.com/19795072

Gonaives is trapped between the mountains and the sea.The first link provides a very good analysis of the storms and pictures of them.

the floods in 2008 were very bad.. causing many people to be stranded on their roof tops for many days

a lot of money was collected for relief efforts.. some of which was spent giving the survivors the extremely valuable gifts of uncooked rice and beans. What more could one want while stranded on a roof than uncooked rice and beans?

oh.. and water.. they did give water

All of the storm drains had been built over by then - back in 2008

one assumes that none of the money was spent in clearing the storm drains.

that is not just on Haiti, .. that is on the amazing capacity of the international aid organizations to spend the aid money in their respective countries of origin before they get to Haiti..

(Sorry for the off track and the snark but it positively amazing to watch the dysfunction of foreign aid as I have watched for the last 12 years in Haiti. Certainly not everyone was on a roof and the rice and beans were needed-- and everyone had the best intentions.. except for the ones who did not)

But - as I see it.. these are the people in the most danger in Haiti.,

I do not know Jamaica and so can not speak to that.
 
MikeFisher

MikeFisher

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Feb 28, 2006
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and again it stoped the northwards movement.
almost standing still again, drifting West now.
it is on the same circles as yesterday, lost powers this morning by 10mphr of it's windspeed,
but those powers can be back any moment.
if the steering currents are that weak when the Hurricane is somewhere over Land, standing still or moving only on a couple mphr, that would be the worst that could happen, wiping out what ever is below.
while the Tracking directions are in agreement within the Models,
the shown timeline "When" it will be at vertain spots, may show some differences.

Mike

at201614.gif
 
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