hurricane season 2017

[MikeFisher]

the longer i look on Irma the more i get sure that the Storm can not change it's motion as quick as shown on the TRacking forecasts. i put it more and more on a touch down with Cuba, at least walking over the Cuban Keys along the Northshore with high probability to touch the Mainland, too, with the fleddered SW Wall.
that would keep it for miles struggling shredding along/over the keys and bring Irma more West than expected.
hitpoint for Florida would not be the southern Tip but more West entering the Gulf to get a first hit with FL S-Central of the Gulf Coast or even wander ver close with the eye over water northwards.
the Florida Straight provides the actually hottes/best fitting Waters for quick intensifications.
its to see if Irma gets after Cuba the eyewall closed to take advantage and raise windpowers again quickly.
in any of such case the FL Keys would be in the midle of what ever power Irma has to give.
many possibilities for surprises of the tracking tomorrow morning and tomorrow noon.
Mike

 

[cobraboy]

the longer i look on Irma the more i get sure that the Storm can not change it's motion as quick as shown on the TRacking forecasts. i put it more and more on a touch down with Cuba, at least walking over the Cuban Keys along the Northshore with high probability to touch the Mainland, too, with the fleddered SW Wall.
that would keep it for miles struggling shredding along/over the keys and bring Irma more West than expected.
hitpoint for Florida would not be the southern Tip but more West entering the Gulf to get a first hit with FL S-Central of the Gulf Coast or even wander ver close with the eye over water northwards.
the Florida Straight provides the actually hottes/best fitting Waters for quick intensifications.
its to see if Irma gets after Cuba the eyewall closed to take advantage and raise windpowers again quickly.
in any of such case the FL Keys would be in the midle of what ever power Irma has to give.
many possibilities for surprises of the tracking tomorrow morning and tomorrow noon.
Mike

All my friends in W & C FL are securing their boats and hunkering down. Looks like, at this point, they are about to get whacked.

 

[Marilyn]

honestly, at this moemnt i would not name any place in Entire Florida, Georgia and Alabama safe.
on light changes of the Tracking the states of Mississippi and South Carolina could be in the middle of the path, too.
if i would be them and thereis a chance to do so, i would drive up to South Carolina and follow up the Advisories there.
very likely they will stay safe in SC all the time.
in case of changes they could continue from SC northwards, as they would be ahead of the Storm with the time to ride away ahead of it.
the Destructive eye of Irma is not that big, but it will hit straight on somewhere and no place around there could tell not to be the place where it walks over.

Mike

Thanks, I told her to head north to South Carolina in case they decide to leave Gainesville

 

[robbie]

I only hope this is the biggest to make history and no other, enough now mother nature

 

[MikeFisher]

I only hope this is the biggest to make history and no other, enough now mother nature

we Humans are still much too young on earth and too unexperienced/unknowledgable to imagine Mother Nature's real power possibilities.

Mike

 

[caribmike]

There are far worse things than a Hurricane. At least you can track and forecast a Hurricane. You can't do that with an earthquake.

And god forbid that we ever experience the power of a supervolcanoe erupting or the impact of a big asteroid in our time. Than we all are toast.

 

[KyleMackey]

There are far worse things than a Hurricane. At least you can track and forecast a Hurricane. You can't do that with an earthquake.

And god forbid that we ever experience the power of a supervolcanoe erupting or the impact of a big asteroid in our time. Than we all are toast.

Those are species extension events. We are lucky to have satellite and radar.

 

[countryroads24]

Irma back to a Cat 5.....listening to veteran emergency response people who survived Hurricane Andrew (which rewrote all the building codes in FL) are saying that Irma is Andrew on steroids....may god protect those people who chose to stay!!

 

[cavok]

Just caught the 2am advisory. Still a Cat 5 hurricane. Where it has been moving over Cuba is nothing but small, low lying barrier islands, keys(cayos) really - nothing much to slow it down for another 60 miles or so on it's current westward course.

 

[janlindy]

what's the word on Jose mike ??????

 

[AlterEgo]

http://nypost.com/2017/09/09/island...ebook&utm_medium=SocialFlow&sr_share=facebook

 

[Celt202]

what's the word on Jose mike ??????

HURRICANE JOSE

 

[MikeFisher]

Irma back to a Cat 5.....listening to veteran emergency response people who survived Hurricane Andrew (which rewrote all the building codes in FL) are saying that Irma is Andrew on steroids....may god protect those people who chose to stay!!

there is no protection who are stu and "choose" to stay in the predicted path of a Major Hurricane.
sorry, but when evacuations are runIcan not feel for the loss of people who go against the advises and stay.
they only bring unnecessarily others in danger, because when they are in danger or hurt the Rescue Crews and Medics have to risk their lifes to help them, unnessesarily.

Mike

 

[william webster]

The mayor of Miami warned people that he would not send rescuers into harm's way...

If you have a problem, you're on your own until we can safely get to you 

They are warned

 

[MikeFisher]

the good news for today:
Jose will miss the Islands.

Irma as awaited wandered all night long straightover the Cuban Keys with several touch on te Mainland shown by the Southern Eyewall.
Irma is hit but not fleddered.
Windpowers went down but still run 130mphr max Winds.
many outer bands are disconnected from the Core's control, but Irma, on more compact looking size, remains a full running power machine.
the gap for wandering northwards is open, it will not remain over the Cuban Keys for too many more hours and turn to more northern directions.
by tonight parts of the Keys will be history, they have to be abandoned by Humans, to stay there is less smart than completely stupíd. the USA is wasting every year so much money on Military Menpower and Equipment, us it, send all your Helis from surrounding states, let your Troopers evacuate the Keys by force.
the same goes for the Southern Gulf Coast of FL. there is no reason why a government should allow their people to stay in such Hot Zone. it will be the Storm's strongest side, the East of Irma, which goes over the SE of FL:
don't get fooled by Irma's ups and downs on windpowers and on Sat shots missing size now in touch with Cuba.
the Florida Straight provides super hot waters, this Storm wil gain additional powers within just a few hours once Cuba is cut loose. the Cuban Touch did only slightly weaken Irma, no knock down.
if it doesn't weaken itself by a eyewall replacement in the Fl Straight, it will be a highest scale Cat4 or Cat5 tonight.
Fl Keys and SW Florida, get the heck ot of there.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

HURRICANE JOSE

Hurricane Jose will miss the Easternmost Leewards by 50-100 miles on their East at least.
at the moment it is located around 200 miles East of the nearest Island.
they will be "fine" on this one, of curse nothing is really fine for the Folks there for a long time.

and no word from jstarebel.
I hope that because he sits on his sailboat hammering the words in his laptop,
the words for the book he write's: "Nuke ya, Irma".

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

The mayor of Miami warned people that he would not send rescuers into harm's way...

If you have a problem, you're on your own until we can safely get to you 

They are warned

that's the completely wrong way to manage things.
a Rescuer, may it be a Firefighter, Medical person etc etc etc, will always go and help people in need/danger, despite the dangers for the own life.
the authorities have to protect their People, Residents in hot zones AND the rescuers on neighboured grounds,
by FORCING Evacuations of the hot areas.
you do not force rescue teams not to go to help.
you have to force your stu's to get out of there and stay safe for their own good.
that safe's the population of such areas AND it safes Rescuers.

Mike

 

[MikeFisher]

Hurricane Jose already passed it's closest approach to the Easternmost Island well out to their East.
they evacuated completely just in case, and right so, as it could have been a easy 2nd desaster within just a few days.
this Storm should not threat any fruther piece of the Caribbean again, scratched off the List.

Irma.
after regaining powers it is again on a phase loosing some.
such up and down cycles will continue as long as it is bothered over northern Cuba.

Irma looks small and harmless, but that's not the real case.
Irma is a well structured full running Major Hurricane not taken down by longest times interacting with usually for storms violent conditions on the Path Irma came from and wanders now.

the bad news is that Irma is slowing down on forward speed significantly the last couple hours.
it will turn NW and later on N-NNW this afternoon, within teh next few hours at any moment.
the FL Straight is perfect fuel for quickest intensification, and Irma showed several times over less warm waters how well it's structure allows record fast Intensifications of windpowers.
the slower it move's forward, the more time it spends over the fueling waters of the Straight of Florida, the more powerful it reache's the Keys.
it will be a very strong Mayor Cyclone upon arrival over the Keys and then upon the prime Touchdown entering Florida somewhere on the SouthCentral Gulf Coast.
this Storm will take the Keys in their middle straigt on from S-N/NNW ad will miss the Southern Tip of FL to the W near the shores. the Shoreline will be on the most powerful side of Irma, the East Side of the Storm on Northward Movement.
let it speed up again and run as fast as possible,
the high forward speed safed a lot on Hispañola, prevented the loss of any life's over here.

the FL Keys have to be EMPTY.

Mike

 

[Marilyn]

the FL Keys have to be EMPTY.

Mike

Governor Scott is urging everyone on the south coast to leave now, they are expecting 10 -15 ft storm surge in Key west

 

[MikeFisher]

Governor Scott is urging everyone on the south coast to leave now, they are expecting 10 -15 ft storm surge in Key west

the Keys will be for a time frame simply UNDER Water.

now we get from the NHC hourly Position and Power updades.
the Hunters are flying in and over the Storm all the time of course, they do so since it approached the Leeward Islands.
I will be out of the house several times during today, stay tuned for the NHC updating every full hour from now til the end.
here is the 1PM Update:

Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
100 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...IRMA MOVING NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA ...

Earlier today there was a report from a weather station in Ciego
de Avila, Cuba, of a wind gust to 159 mph (256 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 80.0 W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM E of Varadero Cuba
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SE of Key West, Florida
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

Mike