- Thread starter dv8
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hurricane season 2017
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this evening somewhen 9-10:30PM/depends how the forward speed stays on/up/down again,
Maria is expected to do it's last turn.
not a real "turn", but adjustment of Heading, it will be pushed more northwards, from there on going further away from the DR,
so the western parts of the DR Northshores stay out of the game.
that adjustment of Bearing should happen ENE of the Bay of Samana.
it is also reflected on the NOAA TRacking Map, which shows the adjustment and takes the Storm away from DR.
Mike
Maria is expected to do it's last turn.
not a real "turn", but adjustment of Heading, it will be pushed more northwards, from there on going further away from the DR,
so the western parts of the DR Northshores stay out of the game.
that adjustment of Bearing should happen ENE of the Bay of Samana.
it is also reflected on the NOAA TRacking Map, which shows the adjustment and takes the Storm away from DR.
Mike
will cayo leventado get hit. we are going there this sunday. just wondering if i should pack. hope all goes well for all of you. i hope its the last one of the season so everyone affected can start recovery.
I was wondering (sorry, in the middle of all this excitement and tracking reports... lol) haven't scientist found a way to redirect or disrupt a hurricane by dropping some explosives in say some right locations in an around the eye or something - I know it is huge but say some of those, what they call it, mother of all bombs, in the various location to go off simultaneously over the ocean, that could be some spectacular fireworks....!?
Then again that would be considered a total waste of money by some as it won't kill anyone or destroy any construction as designed for... !
Then again that would be considered a total waste of money by some as it won't kill anyone or destroy any construction as designed for... !
Does this mean that Santo Domingo will get more winds and rain than during Irma? Irma was VERY soft on Santo Domingo. Almost unfelt.
Despite not being in the red alert zone, many private schools have not opened today in the city, some have. And most everyone's intention is to let off employees in non-essential jobs on Thursday.
10 am update, same course, same forward speed, slightly weaker winds
Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1000 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
...1000 AM AST POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF MARIA OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...
A weather station near Arecibo, Puerto Rico, recently reported a
sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a wind gust of 108 mph (174
km/h).
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES
Hurricane Maria Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1000 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
...1000 AM AST POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF MARIA OVER NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...
A weather station near Arecibo, Puerto Rico, recently reported a
sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a wind gust of 108 mph (174
km/h).
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM AST...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.40 INCHES
As it looks, the eye should be out of PR in about 45 minutes, 60 minutes max, at current speed and direction.
It will bring up new wall.
We have to watch where that will be
The tracking has to stay on what we got at 9am.
A center further W of arecibo would be very bad for us.
No distance calculations on the phone here.
It has to stay centered at or east of Arecibo and track 305 degrees or up.
We have to watch where that will be
The tracking has to stay on what we got at 9am.
A center further W of arecibo would be very bad for us.
No distance calculations on the phone here.
It has to stay centered at or east of Arecibo and track 305 degrees or up.
Eastern Tip of Samana, closest point of Approach 48 miles, Waves should crush high and Strong into the bay.
Mike, how strong do you expect the winds at the tip of Samaná? My favorite tree already resembles a wet cat after the last storm. Will we lose the trunk of the tree this time?
Mike, how strong do you expect the winds at the tip of Samaná? My favorite tree already resembles a wet cat after the last storm. Will we lose the trunk of the tree this time?
For the PC area the winds are already stronger than during Irma. Just not gusting yet.
Wind should be awaited well stronger than Irmas along the E and Ne shores where they strongest powers will pass only a few miles away from shore.
Wind should be awaited well stronger than Irmas along the E and Ne shores where they strongest powers will pass only a few miles away from shore.
Difficult to tell Dolores. Being on the south side of Maria we should not get nearly as much as San Juan did being on the northern side. Our mountains should also give some protection to the south side of our island.
I keep watching for reports from the southern side of PR that got hit with the south side of Maria. Evidently most power and cell service is out in the PR so we don't know how strong those winds/rain were.
But this years hurricanes have been very different so .... I don't know anymore. ;(
000
WTNT35 KNHC 201440
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...
...CENTER OF MARIA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
The government of St. Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch for St. Maarten.
The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
inland over Puerto Rico near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 66.5
West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h),
and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Maria will move offshore of the northern coast of Puerto Rico during
the next couple of hours. The center will then pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday
and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to remain a dangerous
major hurricane through Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic
this afternoon, with hurricane conditions starting in the hurricane
warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday
evening.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Puerto Rico...6 to 9 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.
A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of
the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and
southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches
Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.
THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
WTNT35 KNHC 201440
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017
...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO...
...CENTER OF MARIA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 66.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF ARECIBO PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM W OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
The government of St. Maarten has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch for St. Maarten.
The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Saba.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Maria was located
inland over Puerto Rico near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 66.5
West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h),
and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected through early Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Maria will move offshore of the northern coast of Puerto Rico during
the next couple of hours. The center will then pass offshore of the
northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday
and then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern
Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Maria is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Maria is expected to remain a dangerous
major hurricane through Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are occurring over
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to begin in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic
this afternoon, with hurricane conditions starting in the hurricane
warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to
begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas
Thursday morning, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday
evening.
Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
and on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-
surface winds indicated in this advisory.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Puerto Rico...6 to 9 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north and east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to
your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.
A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal
tide levels in the hurricane warning area near and to the north of
the center of Maria for both the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks
and Caicos Islands.
RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:
Puerto Rico...12 to 18 inches, isolated 25 inches
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 5 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos and
southeast Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches
Rainfall on these islands will cause life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible over Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands today.
THE EYE: Do not venture outside when the calm eye of the hurricane
passes over, as dangerous winds will return very quickly when the
eye moves away.
SURF: Swells generated by Maria are affecting the Leeward Islands,
Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells will begin
affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Can someone let me know if puerto plata will get hit hard? I'm currently at lifestyles/cofresi. Also, there was a group for hurricane updates on whatsapp that I left the group and lost the contact. Is it still being used and does anyone have a link to it? Thanks much
We had here also already first rain nothing big so far. But it is early and still far away. Wind getsbstronger byvthe hour and starysbto gust. Gusts produce about 30% more power than the constant wind.
I will stay on whatsapp now to safe batteries.someine should post here again the invitation link forbthe whatsapp group.
I will stay on whatsapp now to safe batteries.someine should post here again the invitation link forbthe whatsapp group.
Hi Mike
Living in Gaspar hernandez on the North Coast between Rio San Juan and Caberete.
Been monitoring and on the fence as to whether to board up or not. Its just a few hours work as I have a setup where I slide Plywood between an outside Support and inside support and screw in on both sides but it seemed it may not be required until I looked at the 11 am update , the cone seems to have moved a bit south Putting us in the Purple. I am no pro reading this stuff and would appreciate your thoughts . (No liability LOL)
regards and thanks
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