Anybody have any guess as where the peso is going ?

[windeguy]

I know of no market that moves simply in one direction.
Accept in periods of 30 years or more.

This is the widest time period I could find a graph for, but even in this limited time, there are 2 directions clearly shown:

I was here for that wild ride down and now back up. There were interesting opportunities. I don't expect we will see the DOP do that gain versus the USD any time soon like it did in the early 2000's. The current Covid Plateau is interesting to see after rather steady drop in value

.

 

[johne]

I know of no market that moves simply in one direction.

Of course, without a doubt. OH! wait we are in the RD!!! I forgot that element of basic 101 for a moment.

 

[windeguy]

Of course, without a doubt. OH! wait we are in the RD!!! I forgot that element of basic 101 for a moment.

The are some people that like to point out the intuitively obvious.

 

[Yourmaninvegas]

The are some people that like to point out the intuitively obvious.

Exactly like you chart that you posted on the direction of the peso from 2004 to 2020.
Two directions.
Not simply up.

I know of no market that moves simply in one direction.
Accept in periods of 30 years or more.

That is what I said.
Posting of the intuitively obvious.
You simply put up data that proves that my statement was more than intuition‼️

EAST SIDE‼️

 

[Yourmaninvegas]

Of course, without a doubt. OH! wait we are in the RD!!! I forgot that element of basic 101 for a moment.

When people forget the basics I have no problem reminding them.
I deal with individuals negativity with jujutsu like mental moves.
And you know I am not a sophisticated investor.
You said so yourself...

 

[playacaribe2]

This is the widest time period I could find a graph for, but even in this limited time, there are 2 directions clearly shown:

View attachment 4202
I was here for that wild ride down and now back up. There were interesting opportunities. I don't expect we will see the DOP do that gain versus the USD any time soon like it did in the early 2000's. The current Covid Plateau is interesting to see after rather steady drop in value

View attachment 4203.

And the period of the Baninter banking crisis as noted in your first chart above is the rare time when the peso actually gained value due to the IMF rescue bailout for the DR.

That is the only period since the 1980's when the peso was stronger in December than it was in the preceding January...................and that period was very short lived.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[Yourmaninvegas]

And the period of the Baninter banking crisis as noted in your first chart above is the rare time when the peso actually gained value due to the IMF rescue bailout for the DR.

That is the only period since the 1980's when the peso was stronger in December than it was in the preceding January...................and that period was very short lived.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

So, is it your position as a sophisticated investor that the peso will only go up in the future ❓

 

[playacaribe2]

So, is it your position as a sophisticated investor that the peso will only go up in the future ❓

Well, it is my position as a realist, student of history, and a believer in Newton's first law of Motion.

And as a "sophisticated investor," I would not send my money to die by "investing" in pesos......................the peso will continue its 40+ year devaluation march to 100:1 to the Dollar and beyond.

Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[USA DOC]

<My thoughts without, charts, or any reasons at all but still coerect, the peso is going .........Down...........

 

[Yourmaninvegas]

Newton’s first law states that, if a body is at rest or moving at a constant speed in a straight line, it will remain at rest or keep moving in a straight line at constant speed unless it is acted upon by a force. This postulate is known as the law of inertia.
https://www.britannica.com/science/Newtons-laws-of-motion

This is a law that applies to the physical world, not the investment world.

Well, it is my position as a realist, student of history, and a believer in Newton's first law of Motion.

And as a "sophisticated investor," I would not send my money to die by "investing" in pesos......................the peso will continue its 40+ year devaluation march to 100:1 to the Dollar and beyond.

 

[playacaribe2]

Newton’s first law states that, if a body is at rest or moving at a constant speed in a straight line, it will remain at rest or keep moving in a straight line at constant speed unless it is acted upon by a force. This postulate is known as the law of inertia.
https://www.britannica.com/science/Newtons-laws-of-motion

This is a law that applies to the physical world, not the investment world.

Begging to differ.

Countless articles/papers have been published on Momentum investing.....correlating to Newton's first Law of Motion;

Stock Market Follows Newton's Laws In Swing Trades

Being in phase with the stock market is critical for successful swing trades. This market hasn’t made it easy. Newton's laws of motion offer an explanation.

www.investors.com

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4402540-newtons-first-law-of-motion;

There are even ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) that invest that way.

And the proof in the DR that the peso follows Newton's first law is in its chart history for the last 40+ years.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[Yourmaninvegas]

Begging to differ.

Countless articles/papers have been published on Momentum investing.....correlating to Newton's first Law of Motion;

Differ all you like Playa...the article you posted refers to correlation.
Correlation: a mutual relationship or connection between two or more things.
They are simply taking Newton's laws (and the link you posted actually refers to Newton's third Law of Motion) applying them to a situation.
Now way to test for them like in the physical world.
A student of physics would understand this.
Even if he was a "sophisticated investor" also.

Your serve🎾‼️

 

[playacaribe2]

Differ all you like Playa...the article you posted refers to correlation.
Correlation: a mutual relationship or connection between two or more things.
They are simply taking Newton's laws (and the link you posted actually refers to Newton's third Law of Motion) applying them to a situation.
Now way to test for them like in the physical world.
A student of physics would understand this.
Even if he was a "sophisticated investor" also.

Your serve🎾‼️

I see that you do not see or agree that there is a correlation.

Many momentum traders/investors disagree.....as do I.

The 40 year chart of the peso is still your best evidence.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[SKY]

Ever wonder why the interest rate in Dollars is less than 1% and rate with pesos is 7-10 % higher.................

 

[Yourmaninvegas]

I see that you do not see or agree that there is a correlation.

Many momentum traders/investors disagree.....as do I.

The 40 year chart of the peso is still your best evidence.

I see that you do not understand the difference between correlation which does exist in the case we are discussing.
And causation which does not exist in the case we are discussing.
We have nothing to disagree on.
Unless you actually think the laws of Newton actually cause the movements in markets.

 

[playacaribe2]

I see that you do not understand the difference between correlation which does exist in the case we are discussing.
And causation which does not exist in the case we are discussing.
We have nothing to disagree on.
Unless you actually think the laws of Newton actually cause the movements in markets.

Actually, I said;

"I see that you do not see or agree that there is a correlation."
"Many momentum traders/investors disagree.....as do I."

There is a correlation, which is what I said.

And I never said or alluded to anything involving causation.......so where you are pulling this from is anybody's guess.

A trend in motion tends to stay in motion......................and that trend for the peso still exists today..........to the detriment of the purchasing power of its citizens and likely to be more exacerbated by the recent rise in worldwide commodity prices and the recent borrowings of the BancoCentral to meet its international obligations.


Respectfully,
Playacaribe2

 

[JD Jones]

Diputados aprueban proyecto de ley de alquileres que plantea tope de 7% de incremento anual

También aprobaron una iniciativa de ley que crearía un nuevo impuesto sobre las remesas para la repatriación de cadáveres

www.diariolibre.com

2019 they actually implemented a law that prohibits rental increases of more than 7% annually. I've always paid in pesos and never had any issues, mainly because me and my family are tranquil and responsible people, unlike many others the owners had to deal with. So I've actually never had an increase on the rentals during the time I've lived at that specific place.
This law also prohibits more than 2 deposits. Previously it was up to the owner to decide how many deposits that were required, normal being 2 or 3. But after this was implemented it stipulated maximum 2 deposits.

Can be good to know.

The peso generally goes up, and in may last year it went up from around 50 to around 58, and then stayed there around 58 and 59, but now have come down to just short of 58.
During the 10 years I've been living here it has gone from 37 to 58.

I still remember when the exchange was 1/1. A little more than ten years ago, however.

I still cringe when it went to 1/4 and a bunch of us bought a ton of pesos thinking it would drop back down.

Boy, were we wrong on that one!

 

[drstock]

I still remember when the exchange was 1/1. A little more than ten years ago, however.

I still cringe when it went to 1/4 and a bunch of us bought a ton of pesos thinking it would drop back down.

Boy, were we wrong on that one!

Sorry to hear about your misfortune, but its good that there is one person here who can admit to being wrong!

 

[Buzzard]

I still remember when the exchange was 1/1. A little more than ten years ago, however.

I came here in '88 and the street exchange was 10/1 then. Would you please explain your 1/1 comment
Thank you.
Buzzard

 

[AlterEgo]

I came here in '88 and the street exchange was 10/1 then. Would you please explain your 1/1 comment
Thank you.
Buzzard

I first came to DR in 1975. Peso to dollar was 1:1. On the street you could sometimes get 1:1.18. Whoopi!