2014 Hurricane Season

[AlterEgo]

Weather Update from Mike Fisher - he's still having trouble posting:

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it was from the beginning not a runner for the caribbean sea, it is a typical positioned and upcoming storm/disturbance which usually is passing somewhere NE of the Virgin Islands/PR towards the Bahamas or even get's fully turned out on Sea up to the graveyard.
a walk along the northshores of DR is within the possibilities, but well to early to take sure bets on the long range tracking scenario.
as for powers, it was almost a TD early today/late last night, but struggles with medium windshear and dry air already injected. it is also wandering over cool waters.
those conditions are forecasted to go better day by day towards the weekend, so development into a Storm/TD is very likely, maybe even a Tropical Storm Force.
it should not arrive at the Islands before friday morning, and that could occure more delayed, too.
IF it walks close enough to the DR Northshores, then some relief from the actual drought conditions would be a positive outcome. on its awaited path til now the suposed to be Storm is not seen as any threat, the opposite, the whole region/NE'ern caribbean is under heavy drought conditions, so for most it is hoped for 93L to grow up a bit and blow around some urgently needed life saving water.
time will tell, in a couple days we will see if and how it develops under less windshear and over warmer waters. actually i don't see the conditions any overly favorable for a Storm, those buggers have hard times around our soil this season.

Mike
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[Hlywud]

Mike Fisher was able to post in the Off Topic Forums....he should be back anytime soon, we miss his posts on the Weather.

 

[Olly]

Alter, Mike,
Current Track suggest it will pass to the north of the north Coast late Sunday at Tropical storm strength. So it may be the rain event we have all been wishing for!

Caribbean Hurricane Network - stormCARIB.com - Local Reports on Tropical Systems threatening the Caribbean Islands
Go to Storm Carib and click on : sfwmd.gov or ral.ucar.edu for the dtrack info .

93L Invest:

satellite images (Navy/NRL) | model track: sfwmd.gov -or- ral.ucar.edu (+ intensity )

But as they all say - Be Careful what you wish for!

Olly and the Team

 

[donP]

Invest 93

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft has investigated the system and found it strong enough to develop into a cyclone within a day.
The forecast path crosses the DR (Saturday/Sunday) as the northern upswing may occur later than assumed.

donP

 

[Criss Colon]

This is the first time I'm HOPING for a strike!
CCCCCCCCCCCCC

 

[bronzeallspice]

well let's see what happens because according to some models it is not going to strike the DR.

As the storm approaches the forecast becomes more accurate.

"The models agree that 93L will arrive in the northeast Lesser Antilles Islands on Friday evening, move over Puerto Rico on Saturday evening, and approach the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Sunday evening."


"Our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS, European, and UKMET models, predicted in their 00Z Thursday runs that 93L would be no stronger than a 40 mph tropical storm as it passed through the islands, and then dissipate early next week near the Southeast Bahama Islands. The GFDL and HWRF models predicted in their 06Z Thursday runs that 93L would be a weak tropical storm as it passed through the islands, intensify some after passing over Puerto Rico on Saturday night, but turn to the north, missing the Bahamas. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 2-day and 5-day odds of development at 70%. The Thursday morning runs of our top four models for predicting intensity, the LGEM, DSHIPS, GFDL, and HWRF models, predicted that 93L would have top sustained winds between 40 - 55 mph on Friday - Saturday as it affects the Lesser Antilles Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. I predict that 93L will continue to struggle with dry air as it passes through the islands on Friday and Saturday, with top sustained winds between 35 - 50 mph."



" The GFS and European models continue to agree on the long-range fate of 93L. The great majority of the 20 members of the 00Z Thursday runs of the European and GFS ensemble models (which run at low resolution 20 times with slightly different initial conditions to show a range of possible outcomes) showed 93L taking a northwesterly track early next week in response to a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern United States, then recurving to the north without hitting the mainland U.S. coast."


Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : 93L Fighting Dry Air, But Could be a Tropical Depression | Weather Underground

 

[Olly]

Bertha is borne

Ihe e National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Bertha located just east of the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical Storm BERTHA

Olly and the Team

 

[Olly]

Newest Track info for TS Bertha

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA - Combined Track Plot


If it tracks like this it will be off the North Coast about 2:00 AM SUNDAY MORNING .

The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.5N, 69.7W or about 73.6 miles (118.5 km) from POP location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 2 days, 2 hours and 37 minutes from now (Sunday, August 3 at 9:36AM AST).

Winds currently extend about 45 miles from the centre.

Olly and the Team

 

[Ken]

Hopefully it will bring some much needed rain.

Good to keep in mind that a tropical storm is not a hurricane. Winds above 35 mph are tropical storm.

Time will tell re Bertha, but the National Hurricane Center reports presently indicate the odds of the winds being 50mph or above when Bertha passes our area are very, very low.

But we do need rain.

 

[Olly]

Punta Cana - watch this one !!!


Results for Punta Cana, Dominican Republic (18.57N, 68.37W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.9N, 68.1W or about 30.0 miles (48.4 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 18 hours and 5 minutes from now (Sunday, August 3 at 1:54AM AST)


Olly and the Team

 

[bob saunders]

Hopefully it will bring some much needed rain.

Good to keep in mind that a tropical storm is not a hurricane. Winds above 35 mph are tropical storm.

Time will tell re Bertha, but the National Hurricane Center reports presently indicate the odds of the winds being 50mph or above when Bertha passes our area are very, very low.

But we do need rain.

Sometimes the huge amount of rain brought by a Tropical Storm can cause huge amounts of property damage and death (Olga)

 

[donP]

Horizontal Rain

Punta Cana - watch this one !!!

..... and Saman? even more.
Depending on which of the forcast paths becomes reality, the storm (some even see it as an H1) could pass right over the peninsula.
Yes, we need the rain.. but not really horizontally.... :ermm:


donP

 

[william webster]

right, donP

be sure to turn your barrels on their side before the storm.............:glasses:

 

[Ken]

A tropical storm watch (meaning conditions possible within 48 hours) presently in effect for Cabo Frances Viejo to Saona Island.

The present track shows the TS making it to the east end of the DR before turning north. However, based on past history, there is a good chance the turn will start sooner.

 

[william webster]

Cabo Frances Viejo...... IS ME!!!

my doorstep.........

 

[dv8]

we had some half assed rain here in POP. better this than nothing but i am hoping for a bit more.

 

[tommeyers]

Just a little here in STI. Powerful thunder!

 

[AlterEgo]

Update from Mike Fisher, trouble posting again:

here is a update on Bertha, which we can watch live here from my veranda tomorrow afternoon, lol.

cheers
-------------------------
a hopp over the SW'ern tip of PR tomorrow early afternoon, then thru the Mona Passage along the PC Shoreline.
sorrily we will stay on the dry side of the Storm, the real water is on the "other side", no relief of the severe drought conditions to await.
it moves very fast and still speeding up, in and out in just a few hours.
no signs of heavy intensification so far, so it should be a no brainer.
the usual sunday afternoon beach BBQ looks not in danger by now.
watch out for the 2AM updates tonight, they will show the accurate tracking and Powers.

cheers

Mike
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[Olly]

POP Closest Approach and Timing


Results for Puerta Plata I., Dominican Republic (19.75N, 70.55W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 20.1N, 70.1W or about 38.3 miles (61.6 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 22 hours and 55 minutes from now (Sunday, August 3 at 5:36AM AST).

This is from the latest update.

Olly and the Team

 

[Olly]

Latest Update based on 5:00 AM info from NHC

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. BERTHA IS
RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA
WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


Note the Tropical Storm force winds can be up to 115 MILES from the Centre and it will pass about 40 miles offshore at POP.


Olly and the Team