2024 Hurricane Season

reilleyp

Well-known member
Dec 12, 2006
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No worries, absolutely nothing to report.
I just put up the topic so we have it here for whom ever when ever want to show some pre-season news,
so we can continue on the same topic once our new season is up and running.
Can you let us know when the first hurricane will land in July, the category and where the eye will land on DR soil? 🤣
 
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chico bill

Dogs Better than People
May 6, 2016
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Saw this article today and it makes a good read backed by data as we enter the La Nina phase.
Hurricanes are getting smaller, not larger
 

windeguy

Platinum
Jul 10, 2004
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All I can do is sit by, watch, and hope that a hurricane still never directly hits Cabarete.
As for climate change, there is little humans will do to counteract any caused by humans, so we need mitigation measures.
 

chico bill

Dogs Better than People
May 6, 2016
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All I can do is sit by, watch, and hope that a hurricane still never directly hits Cabarete.
As for climate change, there is little humans will do to counteract any caused by humans, so we need mitigation measures.
We can ignore the hoax ! Quit believing the government & media's constant brainwashing.
 

Manuel01

Well-known member
Apr 1, 2009
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This year we will have 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, ....... major hurricanes that might (might not) affect the Dominican Republic.
The global climate crisis will (or will not) cause a strong increase (or decrease or will not have any effect at all) in the number of big tropical storms and/or Hurricans
in our region. Just take the info that you like most and i promise you that you will be closer to the real number than any official institution.
 

AlterEgo

Administrator
Staff member
Jan 9, 2009
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Warm ocean temperatures……. Apparently this means a season with more than normal number of hurricanes ☹️
IMG_5261.jpeg
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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The Decades, since we watch that and freak out about warmer than over average ocean temps, showed that it is nothing like that, as too many other factors play a role to finally decide as a whole if a season will produce more or less storms, more or less hurricanes, and all of that stronger or just more numbers but weaker by their powers.
Ocean Surface Temps make it more likely to produce storms, Yes, absolutely right, but it is the heat content/Ocean Temp into the depths that decides what powers such storms can reach up to.
the observation of those things over quiet a good time frame now made myself a believer of the thesises of those scientists, who believe that over a certain time frame/years mother nature is balancing itself and "Human produced global warming"" has zero effects on the matter about how many more or less storms will be produced nor if they will be more or less powerful than a decade ago.
We humans and our influence on mother natures patterns are not anything really important, our human done trashing of the earth, which is a fact, makes only a very very very very small fraction of the changes, the vast mayority of "changes" are part of the hundreds/thousands and millions years happening changes happening due mother nature's typical cycles.
What we warm up on one small end Mom Nature is contradicting by cooling it down from the other end of the rope.
We can every season not do more than observing during the season Where the disturbances happen and how strong and More Important: Where they are heading to.
We are just in early April and have a long way to go until Summer/our personal DR "wild time".
Next wednesday I will fly out for 6 weeks to germany and as I have there a lot of quiet time at hand, i will as usual read through all those prognostics and long range forecasts, but i am pretty sure that they will not tell us anything essential for our home soil,
we have to wait til the real season for our own surroundings have started and whatch what moves from where to where once something is up.
In the meantime, the best to do is to enjoy our Island(or vacation) Time the best we can, as we anyways never know when time is up, with or without a Storm.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Is a good website check. Lots of good products and maps there.
Fox News? Lol.
one of the high sensationalizing news sources.
Watch them if you like it to freak out about reports of any single cloud somewhere between Africa and the Caribbean.
If you want to "live" watch weather events as they really are, then follow the NOAA Websites and charts and listen to their Outlook.
They are the Pro's and know what they are talking about, without glamour, without colorful painted scare tactics, without government ordered human done global warming blaming etc etc.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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A La Nina alone has no so ever major effect on us at all, it is always the whole big picture, which for most part stays the same.
What La Nina over pacific waters does for our Atlantic Basin, is that windshear may be lower than the average seen over a whole season/longer time period.
What is really Important and putting on effects at the certain moment of a storm is, how is the windshear at that moment for the area where a storm brews up and on its path at the moment such storm is up and moving.
Until such system is up and starting to get some movement together, all speculations are useless and much less for certain areas/countries etc, as by now nobody could tell how many TS Force or higher systems will pop up this season and much less WHERE they will pop up, so meanless to mention that Nobody knows into which direction they will go, how strong they will grow, which Area of the whole wide Atlantic Basin/Gulf Region/Us East Coast 'May' get treathened and how often and how hard.
I watch that stuff now since well over 20 years and my honest Result is:
do not worry about any summer occurances in April,
do not waste any stress time/life time on anything before it started to happen,
be happy that you are one of those very very very fortunate humans of the planet who can afford/manage to live on a beautiful paradise Caribbean Island.
I mean, the vast mayority of the planet's population does not have a clue what the "Caribbean" is
and you want to freak out about "possibilities" of bad weather happenings around your Paradise Home 99.99999% of the earth's population would dream about to live in?
If Your specific place will get hit by a Hurricane this season,
and you followed all the proper common sense protocols/rules for such event,
you will still be/continue to be one of the planet's upper 0.0000001% population fortunate enough to live such paradise life in such paradise place
and after a quick clean up you will continue to be part of that very very very small Elite part of humanity.
Let's stop to discuss such Noño 1st World Problems and just focus on the purpose of this group,
which is to observe and interchange the own experiences during bad weather periods WHILE those happen,
to keep each other safe While such happens.
Sure, as said since decades, everybody has to prepare the own home with food and other essentials for this time period of the year, named the hurricane season.
And doing so for 10 years in a row without anything happened means you have been smart and well prepared, continue to do THAT.
And in the mean time, Enjoy your Life in a Tropical Paradise most humans would not even know that such kinda sweet comfy life even exists.
I am actually more worried about the 3rd(last) of my 3 cows to give birth, which i expected to happen a couple days ago already,
than about a never coming Cat 10 Hurricane over my head in September 2024 or 2058.
We will watch every visible movement during the season as we always did since for so many years already.
We will be Prepared from end April on until almost Christmas Week for what ever shiiit could happen weather wise.
This 2024 Season so far, the worst that happened already and that is way worse than any hurricane blowing through,
is the early in the year Drought Period we are on here on the Easter Part of DR.
Agriculture, specially cattle ranches, are since already 2 months under deep trouble and buy any available dry foods for any of the by now ridiculous prices,
which are already 2 /1 times over the regular pricing and if the dry period continues they will reach 5 times of the regular pricing,
something that happens every 3-5 years when a real drought period kicks in, while "tourists" name it "rainy season", which Hurricane Season never was.
I see it positive and await mid-end April and May to bring us some water to relieve from animals suffering, so we can still grow on the Ranches enough food to bring them all through the Always dryer summer time until our beautiful Fall climate will get everything constantly really wet again.
Hey, we do here not ask for a tropical storm or hurricane, their waters are not assisting much, most times their water dump down within just a few hours damages crops/plantations and a few days afterwards the grounds are the same dry as prior, without anything would have gotten any useful water to grow.
We just have Easter behind us, let's enjoy the hotter weather to get some Beach Time as our Beach Waters should get calmer now for a longer while.
Happy Joyful Sringtime to everybody, followed by a calm and enjoyable Summer.
 

cavok

Silver
Jun 16, 2014
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Mike, that prediction for a busier than normal hurricane season in post #15 is not specifically for the DR - it's for the Atlantic and Caribbean basin, and is for the entire season, not just April. It is based on statistics that show more hurricanes do form when there is a La Niña, and particularly when in conjunction with what are close to record warm temperatures in the Atlantic. I'm sure there are some other variables involved, also.
 

marcosalm

Active member
Jul 24, 2018
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Mike, that prediction for a busier than normal hurricane season in post #15 is not specifically for the DR - it's for the Atlantic and Caribbean basin, and is for the entire season, not just April. It is based on statistics that show more hurricanes do form when there is a La Niña, and particularly when in conjunction with what are close to record warm temperatures in the Atlantic. I'm sure there are some other variables involved, also.
Hey, it is what it is and there is NOTHING you can do about it. Thanks Mike Fisher for your work.......Sit back relax, stay alert and enjoy the preparations that you've made for you and yours.
 
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cavok

Silver
Jun 16, 2014
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Hey, it is what it is and there is NOTHING you can do about it. Thanks Mike Fisher for your work.......Sit back relax, stay alert and enjoy the preparations that you've made for you and yours.
Hey, take a pill and chill. "It is what it is'" has got to be one of the dumbest and tritest phrases there is today - typically used by people who really don't know what it is, or lack the verbal acuity to describe it.
 

MikeFisher

The Fisherman/Weather Mod
Feb 28, 2006
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Mike, that prediction for a busier than normal hurricane season in post #15 is not specifically for the DR - it's for the Atlantic and Caribbean basin, and is for the entire season, not just April. It is based on statistics that show more hurricanes do form when there is a La Niña, and particularly when in conjunction with what are close to record warm temperatures in the Atlantic. I'm sure there are some other variables involved, also.
Hence I answered in short:
It does not matter nor suggerate anything good nor bad for us here.
We have to wait til the season is running and a disturbance is up and running in an area from where it could become something of interest for us.
Those long range forecasts/outlooks are nothing more than the yearly media hype up and global warming blaming,
which are both not a factor for anything.
Once a Andrew, Katrina or Sandy is up and running and on a certain way, That is the point when we need to act and have a reason to get scared.
Until then, all the hype just scares the shit out of many and that seems to be the business of some.
One storm formed at a certain point and heading into a certain direction can be the bad thing at the "perfect" tidal time, as for example Sandy was, which hit "only" as a Tropical Storm but damaged more than so many Mayor Hurricanes.
And many many growing disturbances turning into named storms could still keep a season as a relaxed time as they happen at Their wrong moment/location/heading in harmless directions.
We had both scenarios quiet often over the last Decades since we inform each other here,
so we should know that no long range outlook is worth to loose your pee or ... about it.
And along with it all comes all the blaming on human done global warming, which scientist know since long has no real to feel effect on our over all weather of the planet, but there are many big powerful lobbies which make the big zillions of $$$ when we all think that this is the case to blame for every and all natural desasters. I guess most 1st world countries would get bankrupt if the "Human made factor of global warming" would be explained as it really is, nothing.
We like it or not, the long range outlooks are a piece of big money business and useless for the rest of humanity.
We have to sit back and wait what really comes up and be Honest:
What do You Right NOW with such "high power outlook" different than you did in prior "lower danger" outlook Seasons??
A higher than normal or whatsoever outlook for the whole Basin has under the line zero value for Us here.
 
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