Your post really depresses me Robert. Because my complex used the generator so much because of the long power cuts it broke down. It was SOOOOOOOOOO hot. Can you tell us why you think we are in for longer blackouts Robert?
Forget the price of oil and subsides etc, it comes down to three basic points.
1) The government are not capable of fixing or at least working towards a "real" plan of recovery for the electrical system, history shows us that. They talk a lot and do nothing "real". It's all smoke and mirrors, look no further than the Metro to see how they prioritize.
2) Dominicans are extremely apathetic to these types of problems.
They just take it, people power is almost nonexistent here.
3) Corruption. Dominicans have been screwing Dominicans for years.
Don't blame the Spanish or overseas companies, blame those few Dominicans that took big kick backs to push through ridiculous contacts. e.g Pay for installed capacity, not for power generated. This type of corruption by Dominicans against Dominicans is a bad as ever. It's cultural and will take generations to eradicate.
In my opinion when you combine these three factors, you have no hope of a solution, regardless of the price of a barrel of oil.
I think the only solution is to allow private generation companies to service various sectors, regions etc. They have done it successfully in other regions (Punta Cana / Samana). Why can't it be done in other areas?
How hard is it really? Pick a sector and slowly work through it. Meter everyone and prosecute those that steal. They do it in other 3rd world or emerging world countries, this stuff is not rocket science.
The people in the barrios and small towns know who's stealing and who's hooking up illegal connections. Hand some of the responsibility back to the people. Make people take ownership of their own problems.
Your get as much electric in % terms as what you pay for. You want 100% electric in your barrio, then you better make sure 100% of the people are paying. Given them an incentive to report illegal connections and beat the crap out of the guy that is hooking up people illegally.
It was suggested at a BBQ I was at on the weekend to make the local Banca responsible for collecting for a %. This may sound like a ridiculous idea, but it's a huge step forward from what exists now. The Banca knows everyone and for a % will make sure everyone pays.
Or....
Use a similar system to Colombia. Barrios are rated 1-6, 1 is the poorest and 6 the richest. Everything is pegged against that number. Utilities, housing taxes etc. The rich subsidize the poor and those in the middle pay the going rate. Everyone pays something and everyone gets electricity.
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