Can this happen to us?

quaqualita

Member
Feb 4, 2002
306
10
18
I'm following the horrible news about the damages and deaths Tropical Cyclone Nargis caused in Asia, Myanmar (so far +22,000 deaths confirmed, but numbers are expected to climb way over 50,000).

Found the areal photos below (before and after the storm), showing that a 12 foot storm surge basically wiped out many miles of the coastlines.


Myanmar_TMO_2008126.jpg



Seeing images like that makes me wonder, if a 'perfect storm', a cat 3-5 hitting at the right angle or with a path along the Dominican coasts could do here the same, specially to the low lying areas along the north coast?
Scary.
 

Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
18,948
512
113
A "perfect Storm" at the right angle could eliminate New York City.

That said, let's be realistic: A Cat 5 or 4 or even a 3 that hits Punta Cana head on will create millions in damages, perhaps billions (US$). It will not kill a lot of people. Most of the land immediately inland from the coast is much higher than Myanmar's coastline. Construction is much stronger.

If this sort of storm were to travel along the South Coast, say from Punta Cana westward towards Santo Domingo and San Cristobal, yes, there would be horrific damage, but again little loss of life.

We have outstanding resources and warning systems in place to avoid such a disaster.

After David ('79) not much can happen here that has not already happened once.

HB at peace
 

pyratt

Bronze
Jan 14, 2007
690
100
0
A "perfect Storm" at the right angle could eliminate New York City.

That said, let's be realistic: A Cat 5 or 4 or even a 3 that hits Punta Cana head on will create millions in damages, perhaps billions (US$). It will not kill a lot of people. Most of the land immediately inland from the coast is much higher than Myanmar's coastline. Construction is much stronger.

If this sort of storm were to travel along the South Coast, say from Punta Cana westward towards Santo Domingo and San Cristobal, yes, there would be horrific damage, but again little loss of life.

We have outstanding resources and warning systems in place to avoid such a disaster.

After David ('79) not much can happen here that has not already happened once.

HB at peace

While I agree with part of your statement....that it can happen, I question the statement I highlighted.....where were these resources and warnings systems when Noel and Olga passed thru. (oh that's right, the DR Weather people are off on SUNDAYS!)

Having spent almost 20 weeks in SD, working with an importer and TRYING to get the government to live up to it's responsibilities (instead of asking for global handouts)....the correct answer is....

It's not a matter of if it will happen in the DR....it's only a matter of WHERE and WHEN.....

Don't depend on anyone except yourself!
 

Hillbilly

Moderator
Jan 1, 2002
18,948
512
113
Oh everything is in place....And people were told about Noel and Olga in plenty of time...and Yes, they could have used more time and stronger language.

However, those of us here on DR1 are totally informed about any "incoming" weather...

the government has hundreds of shelters, and again it is a question of getting the word out...

I think that the lesson might have been learned...don't know for sure, but i think so...

But there is no telling with the people...

HB
 

pyratt

Bronze
Jan 14, 2007
690
100
0
Oh everything is in place....And people were told about Noel and Olga in plenty of time...and Yes, they could have used more time and stronger language.

However, those of us here on DR1 are totally informed about any "incoming" weather...

the government has hundreds of shelters, and again it is a question of getting the word out...

I think that the lesson might have been learned...don't know for sure, but i think so...

But there is no telling with the people...

HB

Gee HB, the DR1 "family"....a microcosim of the DR in total......

From my work there last year....the government has substandard shelters that will not hold up in a CAT2 or stronger storm, they have little or no food and NO water purification capability for the masses. There is no advance PLAN in place, the DR government is reactionary....

..the budget for emergency preparedness is "undisclosed". When asked about it last year, Gen Luna, Head of the COE, said nothing and walked out of the room.

Pull your head out of..............the beautiful Dominican beach sand!

Get yourself and the "DR1" family together...and put together a plan for taking care of food, water and shelter needs....perfect since you live in different areas. As a matter of fact, everyone go to AZBs house!
(PM me for a link for FREE info on what you can buy)

People were NOT told of NOEL in time....it was DARK when they opened the flood gates...(I personally saw "evidence" of those swept away entangled in barbed wire along the rivers)

If you think for a minute the government cares for the people (the poor).....you're kidding yourself....

Good luck this season, the La Nina weather pattern is setting up for a wet Caribbean/SoFlo year. I'm sure we'll be working there again soon.
 

DrChrisHE

On Probation!
Jul 23, 2006
599
0
0
While I respect HB's long tenure here, I must agree with Pyratt...The fact that Noel turned on "a dime" into the DR at a right angle on a SUNDAY (when the main person in charge was NOT working and only 30 of the 35,000 emergency cell phones where working) does NOT give me a whole lot of faith in the DR govt's ability to handle a true catastrophe. As for Olga, it was almost accidental that some of us were watching the US weather alerts and Puerto Rico came up with a warning (this was AFTER the official season and after when all the automated alerts were zooming into people's emails). The only reason I was checking the NOAA site was because my SIL in Oklahoma had an ice storm hitting and I happened to see the alert on for PR. I then Txt msg'd about 100 people in the DR as a "heads up" we've got a TS coming right at us. Not that I was the first one to post it on DR one...fortunately there were others who did the same thing.

It is only a matter of time. HOWEVER, the DR has one significant advantage--our mountains are close and with sufficient warning, people CAN get out of the flood plane and tidal surge range. Still, a sweeping cut through the S half of the island would do some serious damage and could kill 100,000s-millions if one looks at where the population is distributed. A well structured evac plan would avoid at least the loss of life, but property--until they build to hurricane code, that will always been susceptible.