Orange own numbers estimate a 38% market share, in a country with some 9 million mobile lines. That leaves Orange with about a little below 3.5 million customers. That, of course it's not true, as it would mean 1 out of every 3 people in DR has an Orange cellphone (absurd), but let's play along. Orange has an ARPU (Average Revenue per Unit) of 112 pesos a month, or 2.66 US$. Multiply that by 3.5 million units and you get roughly 10 million in revenue a month, or 120 million a year. That's gross revenue, but even if it were net it would take a ROI waiting time of 10 years to pay back the 1.2 billion you think Orange is worth. Add all the yearly expenses of the company and you probably increase that waiting time to 25 or 30 years. Who would we willing to make that deal? Still think Orange is worth that much? 5 to 7 years is a reasonable time. So I think Orange will never be sold for that much. It's just not worth it. Codetel was sold for 4 billion, and they not only have 50% of market share in mobile, but they also have more than 80% of landlines, and similiar market share in Home and business internet service (they didn't offer cable TV by then). To think that Orange could be worth 1.2 billion is insane.
Orange increased their market share in the early 2000s by succesfully attracting the young crowd, which worked very good while they were using voice minutes, but once data services arrived that strategy backfired because competition wouldn't let them keep the margins, and Orange ended up with a huge bunch of barrio girls spending maybe 100 pesos a month, if just to retain their phone number, and enjoy maybe a week of "BB-pin" time.
